Transgender ‘trend’ is declining sharply on American college campuses, new analysis finds

The trend of trans identification among young people seems to be losing momentum.

Recent data taken from college campuses shows a sharp decline in the number of members of Generation Z identifying as transgender over the past three years.

Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham, conducted his own analysis of a large survey of American college students, which included a question asking them to identify their gender.

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Anything other than a man or woman is considered “gender non-conforming,” the polling organization shared with News Digital.

Possible answers are listed below.

• Man
• Women
• nonbinary
• Agendas
• Gender queer or gender fluid
• Insecure
• I prefer not to say

In the 2025 survey of 68,000 students, only 3.6% of respondents identified as a gender other than male or female.

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“In comparison, the figure was 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in both 2022 and 2023,” Kaufmann wrote in his analysis, published on UnHerd.com.

“In other words, the proportion of students identifying as trans has been cut in half in just two years.”

“The proportion of students identifying as trans has dropped by half in just two years.”

The report also found that, according to Kaufmann, “non-conforming sexual identity” has decreased dramatically. Those who identify as gay or lesbian remained “stable,” although heterosexuality has increased 10 points since 2023.

Additionally, in 2024-2025, fewer college freshmen identified as “trans or queer” compared to upperclassmen, which is the opposite of what occurred in 2022-2023.

“This suggests that gender/sexual nonconformity will continue to decline,” Kaufmann wrote in an X post sharing the data.

The annual survey, College Free Speech Rankings, is conducted by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The goal is to collect students’ opinions on freedom of expression, along with demographic information such as gender.

Kaufmann conducted his analyzes using six years of demographic data from the survey, FIRE confirmed to News Digital.

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Their independent report, “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity Among American Youth,” was published by the Center for Heterodox Social Sciences and has not been peer-reviewed.

“Our survey looks at student attitudes toward free expression and is conducted for that purpose,” FIRE told News Digital. “As a side effect of asking demographic questions of so many respondents, demographic trends can be detected, as Professor Kaufmann has done here.”

Reasons for decline

Kaufmann said he believes improved mental health likely influenced the change.

“Less anxious and especially depressed students are linked to a smaller proportion identifying as trans, queer, or bisexual,” he wrote.

The drop could also signal the disappearance of a trend, Kaufmann added.

“The decline of trans and queer seems very similar to the fading of a fad or trend,” he wrote. “It occurred largely independently of changes in political beliefs and social media use, although improved mental health played a role.”

“Maybe young people are realizing that they don’t have to advertise or label everything about themselves for it to be valid.”

Dr. Marc Siegel, senior medical analyst for News, said the study is “very interesting” but does not point to the cause of the decline.

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“It raises more questions than it answers,” the doctor, who was not involved in the survey, told News Digital. “Could the change be due to a changing cultural climate? Less political pressure from parents and society? Could it be due to the idea that gender dysphoria resolves in many cases?”

Siegel also wondered if the attempt to “normalize” these options and “overcome stigmatization” might have in some cases been an overreaction, something that is now being reduced.

“Or is stigmatization increasing again, making students reluctant to come out as non-binary?” asked. “This needs to be studied further.”

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Jonathan Alpert, a New York City psychotherapist, said this change likely marks a “natural correction.”

“For a time, we taught young people to overinterpret every feeling. The therapeutic culture told them that every discomfort needed a label or a diagnosis,” Alpert, who was also not part of the analysis or the survey, told News Digital. “For some, that label became ‘non-binary’: not identifying with a gender.”

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According to Alpert, these results don’t necessarily mean that fewer people identify as transgender: “it’s mainly about fewer people identifying as non-binary, which is a very different thing.”

Instead of rejecting who they are, Alpert said, young people may simply be tired of feeling pressured to define every emotion or difference with a new identity.

“So essentially what’s slowing down is performance, at least based on what this study showed,” he said. “A few years ago, identity was treated almost like a social badge. Now, maybe young people are realizing that they don’t have to advertise or label everything about themselves for it to be valid.”

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Alpert said he sees this same pattern in his own therapeutic practice.

“Once people become more comfortable with who they are, they stop needing to define themselves so rigidly. To me, that’s a sign of growing self-confidence, not bigotry.”

News Digital reached out to Kaufmann for additional comment.