When it comes to gerrymandering efforts by Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, redistricting expert Jonathan Cervas believes one party currently has an advantage.

“If nothing changes, how [the districts] At this point, the Democrats have clearly won this war,” Cervas said in a Wednesday appearance on Mediaite founder Dan Abrams’ SiriusXM radio show. “Without a doubt.”

Cervas, an assistant professor specializing in voting rights at Carnegie Mellon University, said he was taking into account the passage of California’s Proposition 50, which will allow the Democratic-controlled state Legislature to redraw its congressional districts, and a federal district court’s rejection of Texas redistricting in the middle of the decade.

The 2025 election was widely characterized as the first electoral test of President Donald Trump’s second term. By all indications, the prospects for the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterm elections are not good.

Democrats won governorships in New Jersey and Virginia, and in New York City, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Trump’s preferred candidate, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, in a crucial mayoral race.

A protester holds a sign during an anti-redistricting demonstration in Austin, Texas.
A protester holds a sign during an anti-redistricting demonstration in Austin, Texas.

via News

However, the passage of Proposition 50 last month could be the most far-reaching of Democrats’ recent victories, as some political experts believe it signals that the party-wide coalition that appeared to fracture after the 2024 presidential election may be reemerging.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, considered a leading Democratic contender in the 2028 presidential election, touted the legislation as a direct response to Texas redistricting in the middle of the decade.

Days after Proposition 50 passed, a panel of federal judges blocked the congressional map adopted by the Texas Legislature in August (which was drawn at Trump’s behest and transferred five seats currently held by Democrats to the GOP column) as illegal gerrymandering based on race. The state was ordered to use its 2021 maps for the midterm elections, a blow to the Trump administration’s attempt to redistrict the entire United States.

However, as Cervas noted, the war over redistricting is far from over. Elsewhere in his conversation with Abrams, he was quick to point out the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which has been an effective tool against racial gerrymandering and voter suppression.

“A half-dozen or more states could redistrict at will if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that allows them to,” he said. “And we just don’t know the answer to that question. So ultimately, who’s going to win the war depends on questions that we don’t yet know the answers to.”

Watch Jonathan Cervas’ appearance on Dan Abrams’ SiriusXM radio show here. His comments on redistricting begin around the 8:36 mark.