Trump told Iranian protesters

President Trump has warned of “very strong measures” against Iran if it is hangs accused anti-government protestersand told his people that “U.S. help is on the way,” when News themezone learned that the repression to quell riots may have killed more than 12,000 people.

Although the administration has made it clear that Mr. Trump will have several options at his disposal, from conventional US military attacks to cyber warfare, the White House has given no clue as to what the president will do. Meanwhile, the US government appears to be preparing for possible retaliation from Tehran.

The US State Department on Wednesday issued a security alert urging US citizens to “leave Iran now” or keep a low profile and ensure adequate supplies of food, water and medicine if they remain in the country. The new advisory adds to an existing Level 4 travel alert, the highest issued by the State Department, which was implemented in early December, warning Americans not to visit Iran due to risks of terrorism, civil unrest and wrongful detention.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has ordered a reduction in staff at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, just across the Persian Gulf from Iran, as a “precautionary measure,” a U.S. official told News themezone national security correspondent Charlie D’Agata.

While Trump’s next move on Iran remained unclear after a National Security Council meeting on Tuesday, military officials told News themezone that the White House was keeping all options on the table, including military, technological and psychological ones. Below is a closer look at what some of those options might actually entail and how they might be perceived in the region.

military strikes

If Trump decides to order US military action against Iran’s military and security forces, the Islamic Republic’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely be among the top targets, according to Alex Vatanka, Iran director at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.

Vatanka told News themezone that the IRGC, along with its feared “Basij” volunteer paramilitary units, “are essentially the brains and brawn behind” any offensive launched by the regime.

“If you can attack them, whether through kinetic actions, offensive cyber capabilities, psychological warfare against them… that’s important,” Vatanka said, adding that Trump would be “sending a clear message” with such a move.

Iran’s regular military may be a less likely U.S. target, Vatanka said, because it is largely made up of young conscripts who enlist and serve for two years and therefore may be less loyal to the regime overall.

The IRGC, however, operates differently, as a parallel religious force under the direct control of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Created specifically to protect the Islamic Republic system that came to power with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC has at least one major base in each of Iran’s 31 provinces, two in Tehran and tens of thousands of smaller bases across the country.

If the US military attacks Iran, Vatanka says President Trump’s true priorities may be revealed in his choice of targets. If these are military sites or Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the United States already attacked in “Operation Midnight Hammer” in June, he said it would be a show of support for one of the Trump administration’s closest regional allies, rather than the Iranian people.

“That helps the United States, perhaps in terms of its strategic goals or friends like Israel. It doesn’t help the protest movements,” Vatanka said. “People will look at it cynically, saying that he is taking advantage of the moment of chaos in Iran to promote goals that might be good for the United States, but that is certainly not what he promises to the protest movement.”

Towards the top: aiming for the ayatollah

Ayatollah Khamenei could also find himself in the crosshairs of the US military.

Top leaders of Iran’s allied groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, have already been assassinated in recent years, and Khamenei “could very well be a target,” according to Bilal Saab, an expert on Middle East politics and security and senior managing director at the organization TRENDS Research & Advisory in Washington, DC.

“If you believe in that decapitation strategy, the best way forward might be to eliminate this man. And remember, he’s been there since 1989. So, for 37 years, this man has been the brains behind what Iran has done in the region, at home and abroad. And if you eliminate him, you could create the conditions in which Iran has a political transformation to a different political system, or whatever is left after Khamenei in terms of leaders.”

If the White House were to pursue this course of action, it would follow the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States earlier this month. While Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, was quickly sworn in as interim president, Trump has declared the United States “in charge” of Venezuela.

Maduro, however, had already been indicted on federal criminal charges in the United States when he was captured, and was arraigned just a couple of days later in a New York court.

Ayatollah Khamenei has been heavily sanctioned by the US government and accused of a litany of nefarious actions across the Middle East, but US courts have not charged him with any crimes.

Cyber ​​and psychological warfare

Beyond bombs and military strikes, the White House is also weighing cyberattack options, U.S. officials say.

“Command and control nodes are pursued and attempts are made to disrupt the ability of Iranian security personnel to communicate with each other,” Saab said of the likely target of such operations. “This is the typical classic objective when you think about cyber operations, and then perhaps also trying to distract communication between the leaders (the political leaders) and, of course, their lieutenants on the ground.

This would be using the psychological weapon of fear, Saab told News themezone.

“You are trying to influence the calculus of the loyalists, of the people who serve the regime, right? And this is the typical dynamic of offering them negative and positive incentives. If you are positive, you defect, then you can have some kind of political future, or at least we will not kill you. The negative is precisely that, all kinds of punishments, ranging from elimination to irrelevance, to going after their property and everything that is dear to them.”

And President Trump’s own way of doing things (whether on purpose or by accident) may keep the Iranian regime in doubt.

As White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday: “No one knows what President Trump is going to do except President Trump.”

“They don’t know which path it will take,” Saab said, “and that’s all part of psychological warfare.”