It seems inevitable that Trump will attack Iran
With the United States on the verge of attacking Iran, diplomatic attempts to negotiate a deal appear to have weakened. Israeli and Arab officials managed united earlier this month to convince President Donald Trump to refrain from attacking Tehran, fearing a regional bloodbath. But earlier this week, a Gulf official familiar with discussions among US officials told News themezone that the chances of avoiding an attack were only 50%. The odds look even worse heading into the weekend.
The United States has built up forces that Trump calls an “army” in the region and is considering striking a broader range of targets than the United States did in its attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, a US official and another source familiar with the administration’s talks told News themezone. The attack could include political targets, potentially even Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which would likely provoke strong Iranian retaliation and end future diplomatic prospects.
Trump says the alternative to attacks is negotiations, but he and his advisers have set preconditions for talks that few believe Iran will be willing to meet. They want Tehran to first commit to limiting its uranium enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militias across the Middle East. Trump and his advisers, frustrated by last year’s diplomatic push, feel Iran should make broad concessions, arguing it has no choice given the immense pressure it is under, the U.S. official and the other source said. Iran desperately wants relief from U.S. economic sanctions, but its leaders are also wary of Trump and negotiating from a position of weakness after the government faced its largest popular uprising in years and brutally suppressed it, killing thousands of people.
The result, said Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, is that “Iran’s ceiling is below the United States’ floor.”
“I think we’re most likely going to do something very short-sighted over the weekend,” said Reid Smith, vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together, an organization founded by right-wing billionaire Charles Koch that advocates for a more moderate U.S. position on global affairs.
Skeptics of an attack say it could be costly – noting that there are tens of thousands of US troops within striking range of Iran – as well as the start of a protracted and unpredictable war. As governments close to Trump, including Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, press against a possible attack, influential hawks at home, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.S.C.) and pro-Israel donors who have long sought regime change in Tehran, are encouraging Trump to strike.
Controversial old-school arguments for intervention are gaining ground in Washington given Trump’s military buildup and aggressive rhetoric: One Republican congressional aide argued to News themezone that “there is a “We value the legitimacy of carrying out a military attack because we said we would do it, we set conditions for what would happen if there is no change in their behavior.”
They face officials within the administration who are not enthusiastic about the idea of attacks, the official said, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who this week told Congress that it is unclear what leadership would emerge in Iran if the government falls. Another source included Vice President JD Vance and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles among the skeptics.
Dalia Dassa Kaye, an expert on US-Iran relations at UCLA, expressed concern about the process by which Trump’s policy is being crafted.
“I don’t think it’s a big deal, whether you like the outcome or not… that the protection of America’s national security depends on whether three Gulf states get [Trump’s] ear on a given day or not,” he told News themezone.
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Although Trump has continued to say he prefers a deal with Iran, most recently on Thursday night, the administration’s threats and demands have led Iranian officials to say They will not negotiate under pressure.
“It seems like we’re not interested so much in negotiations as we are in capitulation,” said Alan Eyre, a former State Department official and member of the Middle East Institute think tank. “We have stipulated that Iran must renounce local enrichment. [of uranium]get rid of all its uranium, end its support for proxies and incapacitate its missile program, so our red lines have widened and become stricter.”
The Trump administration is counting on Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer close to Trump and his special envoy dealing with several other ongoing conflicts, to manage the resumption of dialogue with Iran. In the Gulf official’s view, the United States is trying to use maximum pressure to get Tehran to accept several American demands, knowing that this may not include all of them.
Some believe that simply restarting talks between the United States and Iran would allow a setback and prevent an attack.
But “that’s much more difficult now” because of U.S. preconditions for talks and Iranian reluctance to concede, Vaez said.
Witkoff held talks with Iranians last year that produced little progress and were seen by some as a ruse as they were quickly followed by joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Since then, after protests and alarm among Iranian officials about his possible overthrow, Tehran is unlikely to have any more confidence in such discussions.
“Iran is quite convinced that this administration is not seeking a win-win solution,” Eyre said.
Still, he recommended that the Trump administration explore secondary diplomacy as it tries to limit the president’s mixed messages about his stated goals, which range from Iranian protesters taking over his country’s institutions to the long-standing U.S. goal of limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
“There may be some kind of military strike that prevents significant retaliation by Iran and at the same time encourages popular protest and diminishes the ability to suppress that protest, but that is a very fine needle to thread,” Eyre continued.