Insiders fear high civilian casualties in Iran after Trump cuts Pentagon staff

WASHINGTON – As he bombs Iran, President Donald Trump is waging his first large-scale conflict since he dramatically increased the risk of the U.S. military causing massive civilian casualties and war crimes.

The administration presents disdain for standards in war as a feature, not a bug. The United States is not acting “without stupid rules of engagement,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. saying on Monday, calling that approach superior to “politically correct wars.” But Hegseth’s rhetoric and the administration’s policy decisions before the war could have dire consequences: harming innocent people, America’s own forces, and the success of Trump’s mission.

Since Trump returned to office in January 2025, the number of personnel tasked with minimizing civilian harm across the Department of Defense has dropped sharply, two sources familiar with discussions in the U.S. military over civilian harm told News themezone. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the internal dynamics.

One said staff in those positions had been reduced from 165 to a handful. The Civil Protection Center of Excellence, a Pentagon office that provides advice on limiting combat casualties and researches the cost of military operations, has seen its staff reduced from 30 to 40 employees at the start of the administration to just seven today, according to the other source. (The army attempt close the office entirely, but its existence was mandated by Congress).

And many military command officials who worked on analyzing the civilian environment in war zones and on “red teaming” (the process of checking whether a particular attack is appropriate and legally defensible) have been reassigned to other jobs.

“It’s not a good time to do this because the institutional knowledge that needed to be there to capture [the effect on civilians] “He’s gone,” the first source said, saying they were “extremely concerned” and pointing to reports that joint US-Israeli bombing has hit Iranian schools and colleges. hospitals.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the branch of the military responsible for operations in the Middle East, still has personnel dedicated to limiting harm to civilians, the two sources said, and one of them said the branch decided to retain the largest such team among combatant commands.

Still, that source expressed doubt about the influence of those officials given the Trump administration’s approach to the war: “Civilian harm mitigation tools work… if you have the time and resources to implement them. I don’t understand how you do that with 1,000 strikes in one day in populated areas.”

Four days into the conflict, US-Israeli strikes have killed at least 742 Iranian civilians, including 176 children, and injured 971 others. by Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), an Iranian human rights group. On the first day of the bombing there was a missile. strike a school, killing at least 165 people, mostly girls, and reports indicate that attacks are intensifying in residential areas of Tehran, where 9 million people live.

CENTCOM did not respond to a request for comment. Last summer, CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper saying Harm to civilians by US forces “puts our credibility and trust at risk and puts our troops at risk.”

Civil protections and other aspects of the laws of war emphasize basic human rights; the difference between combatants and non-combatants; and the possibility that anyone could be vulnerable and need such protection. The United States, other countries and global institutions such as the International Criminal Court investigate war crimes and other violations of international law, meaning troops involved in them may face prosecution. And military operations that hit civilians are often counterproductive, generating backlash and lasting instability.

Inside Iran, fears are growing of widespread harm to innocents.

“It’s just horrible,” said Negar Mortazavi, a senior member of the Center for International Policy think tank, originally from Iran. “If you are a civilian in Iran, even if you don’t like the regime, you are forced to live next to everyone, so you don’t know if you are a target or not.”

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Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director for the nonprofit Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC), assessed that between limited information from the ground and the large number of attacks between the United States and Israel, reports of civilian damage so far “are certainly just the tip of the iceberg.”

Iran’s own retaliation has hit civilian targets in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while in Lebanon, the pro-Iran militia Hezbollah has attacked Israel, and Israeli forces have responded with bombings and a advance in Lebanese territory.

“The best opportunity we have to reduce harm to civilians in Iran and throughout the region is to reduce tensions,” Shiel said.

Mortazavi described difficulties in communications among Iranians due to government Internet shutdowns. Family WhatsApp groups have mostly gone silent, he said, and he has resorted to locating one family member and then having them use landlines to ensure others are safe. Meanwhile, people trying to flee the capital have faced checkpoints and hours of queues at gas stations and in traffic, and some have simply given up on staying amid the fear, bombings and violence. courteous of electricity and water supply. He recalled growing up during Iran’s devastating war in the 1980s with its neighbor Iraq, and said many Iranians fear reliving that experience.

The fears are reinforced by the Trump administration’s alignment on the campaign with Israel, which faces accusations of having committed extensive war crimes in its war in Gaza since 2023, and the United States’ overall record on interventions and international law.

“A large portion of Iranians… resent the status quo, but they are also skeptical about how military action can bring about change, especially when done by a state like the United States, which has an absolutely failed record of trying to do this in the region, along with another state that is basically carrying out genocide elsewhere,” Mortazavi said, noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wanted by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Netanyahu denies any basis for his ICC arrest warrant and Israel’s military says it respects international law. But concerns about Israel’s approach to the fighting are widespread among experts and some U.S. officials, and its role could further diminish concerns about civilians in Iran’s campaign.

Israel’s view of a justified target is “quite permissive,” noted a source familiar with American military thinking. “You start from a different place where everything is an existential threat,” which increases tolerance for collateral damage, they continued, and Israelis “don’t care what the world thinks of them.”

The source said U.S. officials could claim “plausible deniability” of the alarming attacks in the joint campaign. But it is difficult to limit reputational damage in a war in which the two countries are obviously intertwined.

John Ramming Chappell, legal and advocacy counsel at CIVIC, noted that the U.S. government itself. admitted Israel has likely violated international law in Gaza, although former President Joe Biden still refused to limit US military support for its war there.

“Now the United States has decided that it will embark on a joint airstrike campaign with Israel. It is surprising that that is the lesson that the United States has learned from Gaza,” Chappell said. Within the Israeli military, “we have not seen anywhere near the scale of accountability that one would expect in light of the scale of violations in Gaza.”

Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

Meanwhile, the Trump administration itself has repeatedly challenged the idea of American or international law that limits your actions internationally. – and avoided the consequences for that contempt.

in a statement Following Hegseth’s comments, Human Rights Watch said the secretary “has deliberately and systematically weakened protections intended to ensure compliance with the laws of armed conflict.”

The administration has eliminated mandatory training for soldiers on the laws of war; replaced the judge advocates general of the Navy, Air Force and Army; embraced weapons that often kill and maim civilians, such as cluster munitions and landmines; and, as News themezone revealed last year, it spurred a Exodus of career State Department officials tasked with ensuring U.S. compliance with international law, while those who remain fearful about offering frank advice.

Amid his new war, Trump continues to launch attacks against drug trafficking suspects in waters around South America, in a months-long campaign that has delicate at least 150 people, even though lawmakers and watchdogs have noted that the targets rarely pose a threat and some have even been shipwrecked.

“The administration has managed to construct a scaffolding of false legality for what is in reality a campaign of mass murder at sea,” Chappell said. “The fact that we haven’t seen a meaningful break from that policy is a very bad sign for the rule of law in the U.S. military and the United States in general.”

In another sign of concern about procedures in the military, more than 100 service members have filed complaints that commanders have inappropriately used religious ideology to justify Iran’s war, in some cases referencing a biblical vision of a river of blood.