A moment of truth in the Middle East for Donald Trump and his billionaire friend

The visit of President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates this week will highlight how his presidency is affecting the Middle East, where dozens of millions of people are in crisis.

But it will also be a great time for a powerful different American: Trump’s special envoy for the region, the 68 -year -old Rooting billionaire Steve Witkoff. The visit could claim their ambitious strategy, or sound an alarm on how he and his boss are operating.

“This is a key potential inflection point for the media east policy of the Administration,” said Sina Toossi, the main member of the International Policy Policies Center. “There is this space for a more peaceful region of the Persian Gulf where the United States tries to maximize what you can get from these countries against China”, amid the growing American anxiety about couples who approach Beijing.

Many regional officials come to Witkoff “as a more unmissable negotiator and interlocutor” than past US counterparts, said a former American official familiar with the Witkoff team, pointing out the impression that the Biden administration prioritized the relationship of the United States with Israel above all. Trump’s envoy is “discreet and results -oriented”, which offers “a positive strategic deviation of US businesses as usual in the Middle East,” they argued.

However, Witkoff also reflects the defining characteristics of the Trump administration, such as inexperience, contempt for norms and potentially mix public and private interests.

He has become known for the little coordination with other US officials, crossing regional capitals in his private plane with a handful of nearby attendees, many of them young and without experience in national security, as well as private commercial contacts interested in real estate opportunities in the Middle East, said the former US official. His girlfriend, former professional golfer Lauren Olaya, often also joins sensitive trips, By CNN.

At the beginning of his mandate, Witkoff’s style risked a crisis when his plane approached the Eau airspace without providing a previous warning, alarming Emiris, whose country has faced air attacks for years. They refused to let him land until the American diplomats, who had become blind, managed to calm their concerns, saying that there was a lack of communication, a regional source told News themezone.

Witkoff has made the habit of extensive private treatment and potentially transcendental with foreign interlocutors, which suggests that their counterparts have faith in it. But such agreements also make it more difficult to have transparency or coordination in the formulation of policies of the United States, and the risk of relying too much on the skills of an official.

‘A black hole’

Some senior officials in the Governments of the Middle East spend two or three hours chatting with Witkoff daily through WhatsApp, according to Khalid Aljabri, a commentator well connected to the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. On another visit to the EAU, Witkoff spent almost 10 hours only with the president of Emirati, Muhammed Bin Zayed, without providing any official reading to the colleagues about what seemed “a black hole,” said the regional source, and added that although Eric Trager, the best Middle East official in the White House, was on that trip, was not included in the discussion. The lack of transparency is “doing very difficult things for embassies in the region,” said the source.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House Press Secretary, praised Witkoff’s tactics in an email to News themezone. “The special envoy Witkoff is working in the direction of President Trump to solve problems at the negotiating table instead of the battlefield,” Leavitt wrote. “Unlike Joe Biden, who was unable to speak with both parties, President Trump and his team can look for anyone in sight to negotiate agreements that ensure peace and prioritize the United States of America.”

The Trump envoy team seems almost to delight that complaints about their approach. “They have all these phrases such as, ‘we are not processes oriented but oriented to the results,” a western official told News themezone. “They have disdain for bureaucracy, and are not interested in adjusting the mold of conventional diplomatic standards because they think this is part of the reason why US diplomacy has been failing.”

Anadolu through Getty Images

However, dysfunction could condemn Witkoff’s efforts, producing unexpected and dangerous scenarios, and threatening the interests of the United States, while stimulating chaos within the Trump administration by strengthening its skepticism among some influential conservatives.

Witkoff embodies Trump’s trends that are crazy for some and near the historically aggressive republican ecosystem, from rich donors to experts. His commitment to American enemies such as Iran and Russia, and seeing contempt for conventions such as deference to Israel, reflects how Trump greatly sees global issues in personalist terms, a trend that is essential for the efforts of some in the president’s circle to reduce US participation abroad.

Most assertive American policy supporters, including republican members of Congress, have labeled Witkoff as wrong. Vice President JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. have attacked Witkoff critics as pro-war. The fracture in republican thought in the Policy of the Middle East already contributed to significant changes by the administration, such as Trump’s decision to eliminate Mike Waltz as national security advisor after reportedly Frustrated the president arguing to attack Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A senior administration official defended Witkoff.

“It is not surprising that the swamp is disturbed when a person who thinks outside the box appears and does things differently: the same people who have spent their careers loving the bureaucracy with nothing to show,” the official wrote in an email to Hufftost.

“Witkoff has done incredible work ensuring the release of Americans detained abroad, such as Edan Alexander and Marc Fogel, while leaving a mass commercial company to serve his country, all in his own penny,” the official continued. “All his work is coordinated with the other members of the president’s foreign policy team, including Secretary Marco Rubio, who is a close personal friend. It is a team, a mission. And Steve is supported by an experienced team that works together to support his efforts to advance the agenda of President Trump.”

The period prior to Trump’s departure brought a new wrinkle on how the president’s coalition is handling the Policy of the Middle East, and a sign that the current approach can soon face even more intense criticism.

A particular fixation of Pro-Israel uncomproments is Qatar, the Emirate of the Persian Gulf that helps the United States to negotiate with the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Witkoff’s critics They have highlighted their past business With Qatar, since they questioned their management of diplomacy on the Israel-Ahamas War. The news that Trump himself wants to accept a luxury plane as essentially a personal gift from Qatari of the Qatar brought new attacks on the ties of the administration to Qatar, even from a notable voice in the faction of Trump’s world generally secondary Witkoff and a less aggressive policy, the extreme right activist Laura Loomer.

The development scandal and the trip occur when the bets of the Middle East elections of the Trump administration become clearer.

Witkoff’s ongoing diplomacy on Gaza was fruit on Monday when Hamas released His American Israeli hostages Edan Alexander in a victory for Trump and his envoy. The moment exemplified how any change in the Israel-Ahamas war probably depends on US movements, at a point where the status quo of an Israeli block has left 1 out of 5 Palestinians in Gaza facing Hunger, and where Netanyahu says he plans to expand Israeli attacks despite the pleas of many Israeli to reduce an agreement and free Hamas’ hostages.

Meanwhile, Witkoff conversations with Iran on limiting their nuclear program are moving forward, but face an imminent term: so that negotiations continue, some type of interim settlement is vital in a matter of weeks, experts say. The alternative is a greater tension in a region even without problems.

The commercial ties between the United States and the rich Gulf monarchies are apparently the priority of Trump’s trip this week, but with regional players and Washington’s observers, it intensely tracking the movements of his team, “there will definitely be a more diplomatic segment,” said the Western official.

Gaza pain

For the 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza, a change in American politics in the region is an existential need.

Since Israel in mid -March broke the fire that Witkoff helped create, his renewed offensive has delicate At least a thousand people, even through strikes on Sunday at a school and a mosque whose victims including Children: while its prohibition of 10 -week supplies has created unprecedented hunger in the strip. The Palestinians now report malnutrition deaths, such as a 4 -month Jinan Iskafi Jinan Iskafi on May 3. “It was like a small miracle, but I couldn’t feed her, she couldn’t protect her,” his mother Aya said Amnesty International.

Triumph And his staff has indicated that they are frustrated with Netanyahu’s resistance to a high fire agreement. “We want to bring hostages home, but Israel is not willing to finish the war,” Witkoff reportedly Family members of Israeli hostages captured on October 7, 2023 were counted in the raid led by Hamas that began the current combat round. Notably, he did No Brief Israel about discussions with Hamas over Alexander, the American Israeli hostage, until he sealed the deal.

Witkoff is personally cautious with the Israeli leader, three sources told News themezone, and one said that Trump’s envoy told People Netanyahu, “he played” when he left the high the previous fire. (Publicly, Witkoff guilty The breakdown against Hamas.) His limited progress in Gaza since then has been partly because Witkoff has fought to focus Trump’s attention on promoting Netanyahu to reach an agreement, said the regional source, although they also noticed that he has a “barely functional circle” of the staff.

Amid the launch of Alexander, the president expressed the hope that it is “the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict”, and the US authorities have said they want to see less suffering among the Palestinians. Even so, Trump has held broad military support to Netanyahu and supported some of the most bellicose ideas of his A right -wing, such as expelling the Palestinians from Gaza.

The way in which the administration, including Witkoff, is the handling of gaza aid, shows how lasting peace in the region, even through difficult conversations with Israel, given the unique influence of the United States on the country, it can be difficult to achieve if its priority is PR won.

The Trump era began with officials who take a literal chainsaw to the role of the United States in international humanitarian work, stating that many historical aid programs were defined by fraud and waste, and stopping much of the United States funds for global help efforts.

Now, in the midst of high profile anguish in Gaza due to Israeli blockade backed by the United States, US officials are promoting a proposal to establish a new “Gaza Humanitarian Base”. The sponsors of the plan, which provides that the Palestinians collect small amounts of supplies weekly in “centers” administered by private security contractors, say that it could deliver help more efficiently than the United Nations or other help groups that have operated in Gaza for decades.

Moiz Salhi/Middle East/News through Getty Images

News themezone obtained a launch for the foundation that avoided the responsibility for the shortage of food and resources on Israeli restrictions in help operations: a problem that independent organizations have documented For 19 months, and instead highlighted the deviation of the help of Palestinian militants, which most experts do not see them as a systemic problem.

Aryeh Lightone, Witkoff advisor, leads the discussions of the Trump administration on humanitarian issues in Gaza. It does not seem determined to force the implementation of the foundation’s plan specifically, but considers that its role is to “neutralize the crisis as a political problem,” a humanitarian official told News themezone, requesting anonymity to preserve relations. Indeed, the official continued, which “means supporting what the Israelis feel comfortable, regardless of whether it will work.” UN Fuinciones now believe The United States would reduce funds for its operations worldwide, including the vital World Food program, if they do not support the proposal.

The plan is deeply controversial by both fears about its effectiveness and the long time that humanitarian birth must be impartial, instead of being seen, and possibly rejected by needy people, as part of a strategy of a part in a conflict. A recent UN document warning against the Foundation grades That the help groups that work with him can violate international law, since the International Court of Justice has ordered governments and organizations that will not help the occupation of Israel of the Palestinian territories, and the court is also considering whether the war of Israel’s war policy constitutes genocide.

The thought of Trump’s team is at least different from the opinions that guide the United States during most of the war, since they do not “take for granted” that Israel is sincere to improve the delivery of help, said the humanitarian official.

Given the Netanyahu dependency of the hard line ministers and the antipathy of the Israeli general towards the Palestinians, “the Biden administration continued to try to speak with an illustrated interest Israeli that is not close to what exists in real life,” the official continued. “Meeting with Lightstone is in that refreshing way … said: ‘Phase 2 [of Witkoff’s Gaza ceasefire] It will never happen because the Israelis do not want it to happen. ‘”

Even so, the observers doubt that the Trump team has the technical experience or the political appetite to challenge Israel’s narrative about humanitarian conditions in Gaza and significantly relieve Palestinian suffering.

“Even if this plan does not advance, the next plan is no more likely to be viable, because everything is based on false statements and without the basis that our humanitarian system, which has saved and improved innumerable lives against wind and tide, is somehow compromised or not working,” said Scott Paul, the director of Peace and Security of Oxfam America, to News themezone. “The approach should be in what Israel is not allowing: humanitarian access without restrictions so that we continue to deliver security help safely.”

The proposal of the Foundation overlooks the key details, Paul pointed out, by focusing on food and some non -food products, while ignoring the “vast majority” of the needs between desperate Palestinians, the shelter, sanitation supplies and “everything else that people need to survive that they cannot be collected once a week.”

Potential with Iran

In the United States, Witkoff can be more intensely analyzed when it comes to its diplomacy with Iran.

Initially, the Trump administration seemed unplayed to handle the dilemma on Iran’s nuclear program, which the president helped worsen in his first mandate. of abandonment A negotiated agreement in the United States to limit Iranian nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief. Since then, Iran has approached a nuclear weapon, a prospect that the presidents and allies of the United States consider inconceivably dangerous, and Israel has said that it would use military media to stop.

But four months after Trump’s term, the public defense of an agreement of the Maga’s loyal and the need for an agreement to boost its economy has promoted Witkoff expectations that can reach a commitment.

Meanwhile, the critics of “a mutually beneficial agreement with Iran”, including Netanyahu, have “played with their hand very badly” by demanding that any agreement involve a so -called Libyan model with a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, said Ali Vaez, analyst of the Thought Group of the International Crisis Group. The demands of such a model with North Korea killed the efforts of the United States in a nuclear agreement with that country in Trump’s first mandate, disappointing the president, and Tehran has said that it is not a non -scenario, which suggests that the idea will have to be abandoned if Witkoff negotiations will continue.

Trump has also made the habit of agreements with regional players, regardless of Israel’s preferences, Toussi said of the International Policy Center, as his agreement to stop US attacks on Yemen’s Militia of Yemen without any promise to stop hitting Israeli objectives in solidarity declared with Palestinians; his conversations with Hamas; And his discussion on a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia separates from a possible Saudi-Israel agreement, all breaks with the efforts of the United States for several years.

Even so, Witkoff has not yet developed the type of broad and sophisticated team that delivered the previous agreement between the United States, Iran and other governments in 2015. That could give their opponents a chance.

“There is very little entry of different [U.S. government] agencies in your thinking. He only has staff and … he has just begun to have technical experts who join these conversations; The information flow and the policy process is all ad hoc, “said Váez, who recently spoke with the Witkoff team.” Those who are much more aggressive such as Rubio and external voices still have the opportunity to try to influence the Directorate of Policy of the Administration, because those who advocate an agreement do not necessarily operate systematically. “

Iran’s skeptics have noticed that it is in a weak and strategically weak position, with Israel’s post-or. 7 military campaigns weaken their regional allies and the defenses of Iran. Some members of the Witkoff staff share the belief that “more pressure could help you will show more flexibility” by limiting their nuclear capabilities, Vaez said, but “it is possible at some time the administration pushes too far” and condemn the conversations, encouraged by some in Washington since “the process has many enemies.”

Witkoff recently made “MaximalistDeclarations on concessions that seek Iran, said Toossi.

Even so, American and Iranian officials, as well as OmanThe mediator among them made positive comments about the last conversations on Sunday. And Witkoff has recently hired several career officials who have worked in Iran for years in state and energy departments, Vaez said to News themezone, added that, based on a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, he believes that the kingdom, a Trump key ally, supports a new possible nuclear agreement.

The possibility of a negotiated agreement can probably only be maintained if at the end of June or early July, the United States and Iran even reach a tentative and small agreement to begin to limit the nuclear program. Without that, other signers of the 2015 nuclear agreement will begin to reimpose the UN sanctions to Iran given their lack of fulfillment of the previous agreement: to open a box of technical problems of Pandora in continuous diplomacy.

A warm welcome in the region

The president and his envoy appeal to officials in the Monarchies of the Middle East that Trump is visiting this week due to his style, and the feeling that the United States can now be more receptive to the partners who had felt frustrated with the previous administration, especially on Gaza.

Men are “emblematic of what Gulf leaders like,” said Aljabri, the commentator about relations with Saudi. “They are predictable, they are transactional, they are strong in deterrence … when this contrasts with the Biden years, it becomes even more pleasant for them as a breath of fresh air after their policy ranged between empty moralistic rhetoric and the pragmatic inertia that really did not like anyone.”

Trump has historically embraced the diplomacy of Quid Pro quo with foreign rulers and abandoned human rights talks, habits that trigger alarms for many Americans.

But Aljabri, whose Father Saad Aljabri was for years a high -ranking Saudi security official whom the Trump’s first administration described as “a valuable partner for the United States government,” argued that the administration should be evaluated based on what it offers.

Witkoff can “open doors that diplomats could not” due to their history of doing business in the Gulf, he said, also pointing out that the long personal friendship of the envoy with Trump has created the impression that he will keep the influence, regardless of “any attacks that face DC”

In terms of progress in the region, Saudi Arabia, the heavyweight among the countries that Trump is visiting, focuses on Syria. The country has been governed since December by Ahmed al-Sharaa, whom the United States lists as a terrorist about its past militancy. However, many American partners in the Middle East and Europe expect the country to help to rebuild after a punishing civil war, to avoid another spiral of bloody chaos and any possible resurgence by figures close to Iran and Russia, the allies of former Sirio Bashar Assad dictator.

Telmo Pinto/Soup Images/Lightrocket through Getty Images

Some observers of foreign policy suspect that the new Syrian leader will be in the kingdom while Trump is there, potentially even knowing the president. And this summer presents an imminent decision point: Washington must decide before July 6, if they renew a Biden era exemption In some sanctions to allow interactions with Sharaa’s team.

An intense debate about Sharaa is ongoing within the Trump administration, the western official told News themezone.

“You have a group of people against any type of commitment … and who want to increase the pressure,” they continued, pointing to Sebastian Gorka, the right Director of Contaithrrorism of the National Security Council of the White House, and Joel Rayburn, the Trump candidate to direct the Middle East office in the State Department. The Israeli government and its allies in Washington also oppose deeper interactions with Sharaa.

Meanwhile, Witkoff and Rubio are open to involve Damascus. “Witkoff knows Trump wants to expand Abraham’s agreements [deals through which the U.S. has encouraged Arab states to recognize Israel] Wherever there is an opportunity to deliver that, ”said the western official.

“The main indicator of Saudi leverage will be about Syria’s policy,” the official continued.

The urgency around Syria is also the result that Trump’s kingdom and team are similarly aligned at another access point in the region: Lebanon. Israel fought a punishing war there last year against Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia aligned with Iran. The United States now feels that other Lebanese forces are moving “in the right direction” to persuade Hezbollah to disarm even though the progress so far “has been slow,” said Randa Slim, a member of the Johns Hopkins University. The Saudi share that opinion and, like Trump’s team, do not press for a rapid Israeli withdrawal in the country, said the western official.

The driving of burning the trip, beyond any context, is what is established for the US media policy. UU. Apparently, the visit is on bus decisions instead of rigorous evaluations of the best policies.

Witkoff’s own financial ties with the Gulf are significant, and both his family and Trump’s are more entangled with the region’s power player through companies such as a new cryptographic project backed by Emirati commercial businesses and the new Trump organization.

The western official said his government fears that the promise of increasing their personal net worth could lead Trump officials to make defective political decisions. They noticed that Gulf countries have won a great leverage since Trump’s first era through growing financial links with the president and his circle despite the fact that Europeans “are not ready to play that game.”

“But at the same time … when you see the influence of Israel’s lobby in the United States, I suppose the only thing that can balance that [in terms of Middle East policy-making] Is anyone willing to play outside the traditional rules and willing to speak the only language that works at this time in Washington, which is the language of money, “said the official?

They described an optimistic scenario in which the general environment of the treatment produces settlements that calm the region and take into account the security concerns of the players of the Israelis to the Saudi. Even so, they noticed “the other scenario: bad offers of mine and worsen things throughout the region.”

“I am trying to maintain an open mind, so as not to be completely panic,” concluded the official.