Climate fuel heat records, stronger storms, almost true in the next 5 years, scientists warn

Washington -Pare yourself for several years of even more record that pushes the earth to mortal, burning and uncomfortabletwo of the world’s main weather agencies forecast.

There is an 80% chance that the world breaks Another annual temperature record In the next five years, and the world is even more likely to exceed the international temperature threshold established 10 years ago, according to a five -year forecast published Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Kingdom’s weather office.

Last year’s album was only the last in a decade of records records heatwith each year since 2015, classification among the hottest 10 ever registered.

“The highest global average temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates into real life to a greater possibility of an extreme climate: strongest hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said the climatic scientist at Cornell University, Natalie Mahowald, which was not part of the calculations, but said they made sense. “So the highest global average temperatures translate into more lost lives.”

With each tenth of a degree, the world is heated from the human cause CHANGE “we will experience more frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves, but also droughts, floods, fires and hurricanes/tifones reinforced with humans),” he sent an email to Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research in Germany. It was not part of the investigation.

And for the first time there is a chance, although slight, that before the end of the decade, the annual temperature of the world will shoot beyond the Objective of Climate Agreement of Paris to limit heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and reached 2 more alarming celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since mid -1800, the two agencies said.

There is an 86% chance that one of the next five years passes 1.5 degrees and 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they thought.

The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations administered by 10 world scientific centers.

“We have just experienced the tentest years recorded. Unfortunately, this OMM report does not provide any respite sign in the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said Undersecretary General of WMO, Ko Barrett.

“The monitoring and prediction of continuous climate is essential to provide decision makers tools and science -based information to help us adapt,” he said.

Fears of repetitions

Ten years ago, the same teams thought there was a similar remote possibility, approximately 1%, that one of the next few years would exceed that 1.5 degree critical threshold and then happened last year. This year, a Celsius of 2 degrees above the pre -industrial year enters the equation in a similar way, something that the United Kingdom Met Office in the long term, Chief Adam Scaife and scientific scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking.”

“It’s not something that nobody wants to see, but that’s what science tells us,” said Hermanson. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, which is considered less likely to break, established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Technically, despite the fact that 2024 was 1.5 degrees warm than pre -industrial times, the threshold of the Paris Climate Agreement is for a period of 20 years, so it has not been exceeded. Factorization In the last 10 years and predicting the next 10 years, the world is probably approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since mid -1800, estimated the director of climatic services of the World Meteorological Organization, Chris Hewitt.

“Since the prognosis of the next five years is more than 1.5 ° C warmer than pre -industrial levels on average, this will put more people at risk of heat heat wave Metos.

The ice in the Arctic, which will continue to heat 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world, will melt and the seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.

What tends to happen is that global temperatures increase such as driving on a mechanical staircase, with temporary and natural meteorological cycles that act as jumps up or down on that mechanical staircase, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from a child, who adds warming to the globe, the planet does not return much, if it does.

“Record temperatures immediately become the new normality,” said Stanford University Climate Scientist, Rob Jackson.

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