2 populist European leaders openly expect a Trump electoral victory

European leaders rarely intervene in the US elections before they took place, but the prime minister of the extreme right of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, has ignored those conventions.

“If Mr. Trump returns, we will open multiple bottles of champagne,” Orbán said during a press conference before heading to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on October 10. He also expressed the confidence that former President Donald Trump, if he reelacta, would be resolved. The Ukraine War Before assuming the position, something Trump himself He has promised to do.

Orbán and Trump have a friendly relationship. The Hungarian leader supported Trump and He visited it In Mar-A-Lago in July after attending a NATO summit in Washington. Trump often speaks hot of orbán in political manifestations and in media interviews.

When vice president Kamala Harris said during Your debate With Trump that world leaders were “laughing” before the former president and called him “a misfortune,” Trump defended himself by pointing to his orbán’s evaluation.

“He said that the most respected and feared person is Donald Trump,” said the former president, calling Orbán “a hard, intelligent person.”

“Increasingly worried”

That positive evaluation of Orbán is not shared by many other US politicians. Several Republicans of the Senate have traveled to Hungary to meet with representatives of civil society and worried about the growing influence of Russia in Hungary.

“Our delegation and many of our Congress colleagues are increasingly concerned about the deep and wide relationship of Hungary with Russia and the continuous erosion of their democratic institutions,” said Republican Senator Jerry Moran de Kansas, who directed a delegation to Hungry earlier this month. “It is of our shared interest for our countries to work closely together. We urge Hungary to hear the concerns of their allies and act on them.”

Orbán has been in power for 14 years, and fulfilled a previous period as a leader of Hungary before that. He has fostered much closer relations with Russia than any of its European Union counterparts. He has received strong criticism from the block for imposing strict restrictions on immigration and LGBTQ+rights, and for limiting freedom of the press and independence from Hungary courts. The EU has accused its government of violating union standards on the rule of law and democracy.

The Orbán government has disagreed with Washington on Russian assets frozen by US and European governments after the invasion of Ukraine of Russia in Ukraine in February 2022.

The United States and Europe would like to use some of those Russian assets seized to finance loans to Ukraine, but the Orbán government wants to stop any decision about it until after the presidential elections of the United States.

“We believe that this problem should be decided, the extension of the Russian sanctions, after the US elections,” said Hungarian finance minister Mihály Varga. “We have to see in which direction the future US administration is on this issue.”

It is not clear what a second Trump administration would mean for the future of sanctions against Russia, but the former president speaks of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has repeatedly refused to say if he wants Ukraine to prevail in the war initiated by Moscow.

In a new book, journalist Bob Woodward claims Trump has spoken with Putin up to seven times since he left office. A Kremlin spokesman denied that such calls took place.

Orbán has suggested that he has an idea of ​​Trump’s plans for Ukraine. In an interview with a Hungarian exit, he discussed how Trump intended to end the war. Trump, he said, “will not give a penny” to Ukraine and the war will end because Ukraine “cannot be maintained only two feet.”

“If the Americans do not give money and weapons and Europeans do not give them, then this war is over,” said Orbán. “If Americans do not provide money, Europeans will not be able to finance this war on their own, and then the war will end.”

The United States has provided more than $ 174 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the war began.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, said Monday that if Trump is not re -elected, Europe “will have to prepare for a very difficult period.”

“We believe that Trump’s victory can cause a change in international political life that will bring more hope of peace than ever,” said Szijjáró.

Orbán has described Trump as a “rebel” and “refreshing” character among world leaders.

“I like Mavericks and he is like that,” Orbán said in March. “One of the most boring elements of my profession, that leaders are becoming more and more boring. Therefore, we need new types.”

“A dangerous proposal”

The United States ambassador to Hungary David Pressman criticized Orbán’s open preference for Trump.

“Prime Minister Orbán, who, on the one hand, states without foundation that the United States government is trying to overthrow its government, publicly asks for the political defeat of the president of the United States and actively participates in the political events of the United States,” Pressman said in an event in March that commemorates the 25th anniversary of Hungary in the OTAN drive. “Hungary advocates electoral candidates around the world from Poland to Brazil, all while denouncing foreign interference here at home.”

In July, Pressman said that Orbán reminded “every day who would like to win that choice, who would vote if he were American.”

“We have no other ally or partner, or just, that in a similar, open and tireless way, he campaigns for a specific candidate in an election in the United States of America,” Pressman said about Orban, suggesting that the Hungarian leader was “apparently convinced that, regardless of what, he only helps Hungary, or at least helps him personally.”

He warned that “partying a bilateral relationship is a dangerous proposal” and does not serve the best interests of the Hungarian people.

“The current government of Hungary can see its relationship with the United States as a ‘political’ issue, but, I assure you that, the United States of America,” said the ambassador.

Orbán’s role on the world stage has expanded in recent years. When Finland and Sweden sought the membership of NATO, Hungary and Türkiye opposed. Hungary was the last NATO member to approve Sweden adhesion to the Alliance.

In July, when Hungary assumed the six -month rotational presidency of the EU governing body, the European Commission, Orbán adopted the slogan, “make Europe large again.” Although the role is largely symbolic, he traveled in what he called “peace missions” to kyiv, Moscow, China, Washington and Florida.

The trip to Moscow angered the leaders of the EU and NATO, and Jens Stoltenberg, then the general secretary of the Transatlantic Defense Alliance, said that Orbán’s visit did not represent the block or its Ukraine policies.

Orbán has also adopted a tactic used by some border state governors of the Republican Party in the United States, making Hungarian migrants to Brussels. The EU ordered Hungary to pay a fine of 200 million euros (approximately $ 217 million) for violating the asylum protocols of the block, but Budapest ignored it. Since then, the EU has retained Hungary funds.

The strict application of Hungary of immigration laws has apparently discouraged migration. According to EU figures, there were only 31 asylum claims in the country in 2023.

“If Brussels continue to insist on his decision to punish us for defending EU borders, they can get what they want,” Orbán wrote in X. “We will transport illegal migrants who are hitting the Hungarian door to the main square of Brussels.”

Elon Musk, who has donated dozens of millions of dollars to Trump’s re -election efforts and is also an open critic of illegal migration, replied: “Good idea” about X, who possesses.

Slovakia

The sphere of influence of Russia reaches beyond Hungary.

Slovakia also opposes NATO policies towards Ukraine. Under nationalist prime minister Robert Fico, who returned to power last fall, Slovakia has stopped military aid to Ukraine and proposed to raise EU sanctions on Russia.

Fico has not commented directly on the imminent election of the United States, and is not as frank as Orbán when it comes to American politics. But he has made clear his preference for Trump. After Trump’s life attempt in July, Fico, who survived his own murder attempt In May, he hastened to blame Trump’s political opponents, saying they tried to “close it.”

“And when they are not successful, they bother the public so much that some poor kind takes a gun,” said Fico in a publication on social networks.

Like Orbán, Fico has predicted that Trump would end the war in Ukraine before assuming the position if he is re -elected.

“I think this because the United States has total influence in Ukraine,” he said.

Fico, who runs the populist and nationalist party Smer, wants to restore ties with Russia. After Orbán left Moscow in July, Fico told him to a Slovaca exit that orbán would have joined with pleasure, if it were not for his wounds for the murder attempt.

His defense minister filed a complaint against Fico’s predecessor for donating the old MIG-29 combat planes of Slovakia to Ukraine without parliamentary approval.

Russian influence efforts in Slovakia should be a warning for the United States, said Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia at a audience in May. Warner, who presides over the select intelligence committee, said the Slovak government was becoming Pro-Kremlin. He pointed out that in 2022, more than 75% of the population supported Ukraine, but said that months of Russian efforts had reversed public opinion and managed to convince most of the Slovaks that the United States caused war.

“A wide range of media, open source research and other sources have indicated in a similar way to Russian electoral influence campaigns in Slovak elections, “Warner said.

Energy is one of the motivating factors behind the desire of Hungary and Slovakia of a rapid end for the Ukraine-Russian war. Both countries have depended for a long time on economic oil and gas, which is transported through Ukraine. The Ukraine Agreement to allow the transport of fuel to expire at the end of the year, and the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys, Shmyhal, told Fico that kyiv would not extend or renew the agreement.

Russia provided 80% of Hungary oil and gas and 100% of its nuclear energy in 2022, according to the International Trade Commission. Two thirds of the natural gas used in Slovakia came from Russia in 2023, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation reported, based in Germany.

After the agreement with Ukraine expires, Hungary will import Russian energy through a pipe that runs in Türkiye.

Hungary and Slovakia have led a lonely effort to pursue friendly policies with Moscow as EU and NATO members.

Trump in February threatened NATO members who do not spend 2% of their national GDP in defense.

“No, I wouldn’t protect you,” Trump said. “In fact, I would encourage me [Russia] do whatever they want. “

Both Hungary and Slovakia have reached the defense spending threshold of 2%, according to NATO data published in June. Eight other nations still fall short.