Would Israel try to kill Iran?

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has not ruled out killing the 86 -year -old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the mask of what he calls an “existential” threat to Israel. Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel would like to see, and even help precipitate, a regime change in Iran, which has been governed by a hard -line theocratic government since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

Friday, after ordering the First attacks in Iran Nuclear SitesNetanyahu said: “Israel’s struggle is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses you and impoverishes you.”

He urged the people of Iran to unite their flag and their historical legacy, defending their freedom from the evil and oppressive regime, “and added:” This is their opportunity to stand up and let their voices be heard. “

When Abc News asked him in an interview that was broadcast on Monday if Israel would try to kill Khamenei, Netanyahu only said his country was “doing what we should do.”

He rejected the suggestions that such movement would be staggered, however, saying: “The conflict will not increase, the conflict will end.”

In a publication about his own real social networks platform, President Trump said: “We know exactly where the so -called” supreme leader “is hidden. It is an easy target, but it is safe there: we are not going to take it out (kill!), At least not for now. But we do not want the missiles to shoot in civilians, or US soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”

Israel’s attacks hit Khamenei’s internal circle

“I imagine that the supreme leader currently cannot sleep and worried about whether he will be alive or not,” Holly Dagres, regional expert and senior fellow in the Washington Institute group in Washington, told News themezone on Washington, DC.

Israel’s ongoing attacks have killed several of the main generals and security advisors of Iran to Ayatollah, hitting his intimate circle, which, according to the Reuters news agency, consists of only 15 to 20 loyal loyal. The dead include the commander in chief of the elite revolutionary guards of Iran Hossein Salami, the head of the Balistic missile program of Iran, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and the chief of spies Mohammad Kazemi.

On Tuesday, Israel’s army boasted to kill the beaten man to replace the head of the Iranian army cabinet, only four days after killing his predecessor in his first round of strikes.

“We eliminated Ali Shadmani, the chief of war cabinet, the most important military commander of the Iranian regime,” Israeli military spokesman, Brigade General Effie Defrin, said on Tuesday. “He was eliminated at the headquarters of the Iranian regime in the heart of Tehran. Shadmani was the chief of cabinet of the armed forces of the Iranian regime and the man closest to the leader of Iran, Khamenei. He was appointed to replace the chief of the anterior cabinet, whom we also give in the opening blow of the operation. He only managed to occupy the 4 -day position.”

But even if Israel kill Ayatollah himself, Dagres said that Iran’s clerical regime has an established process to keep the government stable.

Iran is not directed by “a man and some generals”

“What happens with the Islamic Republic is that this is not just a man and some generals,” Dagres told News themezone. “This is a system or apparatus that has been very widely thought. The Islamic Republic has something similar to the Faculty of Cardinals (of the Vatican): the Assembly of Experts, and in reality they determine who is a supreme leader.”

The high -level religious body, also known as the Iran expert Council, is composed of 88 senior Islamic clergy responsible for choosing the Supreme Leader of Iran, generally when the current one dies.

“From what we have been seeing so far, it does not seem that any of those people has been attacked by Israel, Dagres said.” This is a replaceable regime in terms of leadership at the top, because they are prepared for the eventual death of a supreme leader. “

Even if the entire theocratic government system of Iran Collapsara, agitation would not necessarily guarantee a new government that is more friendly to Iran’s repressed people themselvesto Israel, or the United States.

“There could be a scenario in which the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard takes over, and could go in different directions,” Dagres said. “They could be more authoritarian. They can be more western. Assad’s fallIt was that what happens is not always better. “

These prodemocratic surveys of Arab spring in the Middle East in 2010, in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Tunisia, were initially found with hope in the democratic western world, but in most of those countries, offers for democracy were dedicated to the civil war or were defeated by new authoritarian regimes or the emergence of extremist groups.

Could the internal tension threaten Iran’s regime?

Echo of Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Iran’s Supreme Leader on Tuesday that a destination similar to the former president of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, warned. The Iraqi strong man regime fell in 2003 after almost a quarter of a century. He was found hidden in a bunker by US forces and was then sentenced to death by a special Iraqi court and hanged for crimes against humanity.

“I warn the Iranian dictator to continue committing war crimes and launch missiles towards Israeli civilians,” Katz said on Tuesday. “I should remember what happened to the dictator in the neighboring country to Iran, who took the same way against Israel.”

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and commentator in Tel Aviv, told News themezone on Tuesday that “the types of tensions that cause a regime to fall is usually internal, not external.”

“A country of 10 million cannot precipitate a regime change in a country of 90 million,” Pinkas said, highlighting the great discrepancy in size between Israel and Iran much larger, which said it was also 1,100 miles away.

“For that to happen, for a regime change to occur, you basically need a recreation of the failed Iraq invasion [by the U.S.] 2003, “Pinkas said.” And I don’t think anyone wants that, certainly not Americans. “

He sees Netanyahu’s call so that the Iranians face their own leadership as “pure arrogance.”

“I doubt that someone living in Tehran and listens to Netanyahu says: ‘Oh, Wow, you know, this is a call to action, should go out and fight against the regime because Mr. Netanyahu, thousands of miles away, told me to do it.”

The last time the protests of Mass Antigubernamental Street broke out in Iran was in 2022 with the call Movement of “Woman, Life, Freedom”. That outrage was caused by the death of the 22-year-old Kurda-Iraní women, Mahsa Amini, under the custody of Iran’s religious police, according to reports, after being arrested for an inappropriate head cover.

Netanyahu has repeated the chorus of protest of three words in the messages directed directly to the Iranians since his country launched their attacks at the end of last week.

But those protests in Iran were rapidly annulled, and aggressively, by the Iranian authorities and had decreased in the spring of 2023.

Since Israel began bombing Iran last week, no one has taken to the streets in Iranian cities. The residents of the country seem to focus on the immediate threat, fighting for the refuge and evacuating the main cities as Israeli bombs fall.

“Why would you be in the streets if Israeli aircraft bombard those same streets or bombard military objectives not far from you,” Pinkas said. “They move away, as far as possible from Tehran … but I think that when the dust sits, and that could be in two, three days, it could also be in three weeks, I honestly cannot predict that, I think that much of that anger will be removed in the regime.”

In other words, even if Israel’s actions do not cause an immediate fall of Iran’s Islamic rulers, could feed the determination of Iranians to face their cleric leaders. If that happens, it could reach one of the weakest moments of Ayatollah in almost half a century.

• Tehran
• War
• Iran
• Israel
• Ayatolá Ali Khamenei
• Benjamin Neta Nyahu