Diplomacy

Diplomacy will have a “last shot” in the next two weeks to bring the Israel-Iran conflict To the end, according to an American diplomatic official and a European, a window established by President Trump this week while he decide If you involve the United States in Israel’s offensive against Iran.

These efforts were underway on Friday when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with European foreigners in Geneva in the face of the ongoing bombing campaign of Israel and US military accumulation in the region.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, the United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and the main diplomat of the European Union, Kaja Kallas, attended the Geneva meeting with Aragchi. Lammy had met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the envoy of the Middle East Steve Witkoff in the White House on Thursday.

The gin meeting lasted almost four hours, twice longer than scheduled, and then, Barrot indicated that there would be more conversations and told reporters that “the problem of Iran’s nuclear program cannot be solved only by military means.” Lammy said: “We were clear: Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Araghchi also spoke after the meeting and said Iran supported the continuous discussions.

“Iran is ready to consider diplomacy once again,” he said, and added, “I emphasize that Iran’s defense capabilities are not negotiable. (But) I express our preparation to meet again in the near future.”

The supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei remains the best decision maker, and it is not yet clear if Israeli air attacks in progress and the imminent threat of the participation of the United States will bring him closer to a diplomatic ramp that when Witkoff offered a last time proposal a few weeks ago. USA. offerwhich is still on the table, would have allowed Iran to have a civil nuclear program if I agreed not to enrich uranium on its ground. Instead, Iran could buy enriched fuel from other countries. A suggestion implied an Omani idea of ​​establishing a regional consortium that allows enrichment for civil purposes under monitoring by the OIEA and the United States.

It is believed that Khamenei, 86, is still fighting cancer and is hiding from Israeli strikes. He has not responded to the opertures of multiple countries that seek to reduce the conflict.

It is not entirely clear how functional is the Iranian government at this time. Internet connectivity and international calls to Iran They are difficult to complete, according to sources in the region. Cyber ​​attacks have paralyzed the banking system, and until Thursday, multiple diplomats recognized factors such as these have hindered the organization of conversations in person with Aragchi.

The current Israeli assault can also make Khamenei afraid of communicating, given concerns about avoiding signal intelligence intersections that could be used to aim He suggested a diplomatic source.

Anything that Aragchi discusses with the West will ultimately need the approval of the supreme leader, and the expectations of the United States for an advance during this meeting are low. But it is a beginning.

It remains to be seen if the conversation in Geneva produced some indication of whether Iran is still open to direct conversations with the United States, not only European nations, which is what Witkoff has also been trying to start through his own personal reach, said an American official.

Türkiye and Oman, as well as European countries, including Italy and Norway, have offered to organize direct or indirect conversations between the United States and Iran, if Tehran would choose that path, according to two European diplomatic sources. Italian Foreign Minister said Rubio told him Thursday that the United States is ready for direct negotiations with Iranian counterparts, and a French diplomat also said that Rubio had also transmitted the same message to Barot. It is expected that the French Foreign Minister and the Secretary of State speak again after Geneva consultations.

Trump has expressed his frustration in recent weeks that, although Iran has reached the negotiating table, their leaders have not shown the willingness to really negotiate. Iran did not offer a response for two weeks to the most recent proposal of the United States of Witkoff and neither declined or accepted its terms, said an American official familiar with the efforts to News themezone. On the other hand, Iranian leaders issued press statements, but the negotiators did not devote themselves directly to the details or discussed the terms of the offer. That lack of substantive commitment raised doubts about the Trump administration about whether Iran was participating in negotiations in good faith or simply running out of the clock.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has openly questioned if Iran’s leaders were playing with Mr. Trump and used that uncertainty to justify his unilateral decision to launch military attacks. Multiple American and foreign diplomats indicated that Trump did not bless the strikes or explicitly told Netanyahu that he should proceed with them. Diplomatic sources recognize that Iran leaders may also be wondering about the degree of coordination between the United States and Israel and may not be sure if the diplomacy initiated by the United States was an trick to justify the use of the military force that Netanyahu has advocated for a long time.

But an American official said that Mr. Trump’s interest in diplomacy was genuine, as well as his aversion to attract the US army to a war of the Middle East, especially without a clear sense of what would come later, if the Iranian regime collapsed.

American and European diplomats confirmed that there are confidential conversations about who would lead Iran next, if the nuclear sites and the material can be insured, and the possible environmental and health consequences for the regional allies of military strikes in nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, the president still has the option of choosing to use the military force, including the potential to use for the first time in history, the MOP or massive artillery penetratora 30,000 -pound bunker bunker bomb, to destroy underground nuclear facilities in Fordo.

In theory, Trump maintains the ability to launch a strike while it is out of the city in its golf complex in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Friday and Saturday, the sources said. A safe suite is established before reaching any location outside the city, and also has access to safe communications that would allow you to give an order while you are directed. While in his Florida Golf Resort, Mar-a-Lago, he ordered a strike over Syria in 2017 and an Iranian general in 2020.

Meanwhile, the intelligence evaluation of the United States remains that Khamenei has not ordered the resumption of the nuclear weapons program that will be suspended in 2003. But Iran has accumulated an amount of enriched nuclear fuel that could be equal to an advanced missile or a more rudimentary weapon in short in short order if the supreme leader ordered. It is still an open question if bombing Fordo would trigger Iran’s leaders to run towards the creation of a bomb or finish the program completely.

Elizabeth Palmer and Sara Cook contributed to this report.

• Iran
• Israel
• Nuclear weapons