Triumph

Washington, July 3 (Reuters) – even before the last vote on the fiscal sweep and the expenditure bill of the president of the United States, the Republicans and the Republicans were counted Democrat In Congress he began playing how to use it to win an advantage in the mid -period elections of 2026.

The mid -period elections traditionally punish the president’s party in office, giving Democrat Hope of recovering control of at least one Congress camera where Republicans now have total control. Come the cuts of the Trump bill to Medicaid and food assistance such as Ready ammunition for your future campaign.

“There are now Republicans from the House of Representatives, this morning, who are about to sign their political obituary with this vote,” said representative Brendan Boyle to Reuters hours before the legislation approved the House of Representatives 218-214.

“They are literally walking on the board for Donald Trump,” said Pennsylvania’s Democrat.

Republicans argue that permanent commercial tax exemptions will turn the economy before the November 2026 elections, which leads to employment growth, higher wages and lower prices for edible and energy.

“The American people will see great benefits of this bill, and they will know which party was fighting for them,” said the leader of the majority of the camera, Steve Scalise, Republican number 2 of the Chamber.

“The Democratic party still does not know why they lost in November. They will be remembered next year when they lose again,” Louisiana’s Republican predicted.

But surveys data, independent political analysts and the imminent withdrawal of two of the few Republicans who have been willing to challenge Trump tell a more complicated story about what US voters could have more than a year in the future in mind.

Via News

On the one hand, the Republicans seem to have their work for them when it comes to selling voters in the legislation, which they say that does good in the promises of the campaign that brought them the victory and victory of Trump in 2024.

Forty -nine percent of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% favor it, according to the recent surveys of the Pew non -partisan research center. Pew said that the majorities expressed concern that the legislation would increase the budget deficit and damage low -income people while benefiting the rich.

Non -partisan forecasts say that the legislation will add $ 3.4 billion to the $ 36.2 billion debt in the country, a prediction that many Republicans argue that overlooks the future economic growth of commercial tax cuts.

Medicare concerns

Internal Republican surveys have also shown that even in the districts held by the party, voters oppose the cuts to the Medicaid health program for low -income Americans and private health insurance subsidized by the federal government, that the budget office of the non -partisan congress budget predicts that it could leave almost 12 million Americans without health insurance.

“Insurance that remember to have lost their medical attention or food assistance, if that happens, and most will blame the ruling party, the Republicans,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Policy Center of the University of Virginia.

But the Republicans ignored the dangers of the retreat of voters and predict that the night effects of the legislation, which includes work requirements for Medicaid receptors with the body, will not feel until after the 2026 elections.

“Nothing of these things with Medicaid even affects anyone for two years,” said Republican representative Mike Flaod, who has resisted storm meetings of the City Council in his Nebraska district this year.

Paul Sracic, an attached member of the Hudson Institute of conservative inclination, also argued that Medicaid’s cuts would be too complicated and would arrive too late to have a great impact on voters.

“Politics is about simplifying things. Medicaid cuts are somewhat complicated, while extending the current tax regime is easy for people,” he said.

Scalise and other Republicans predicted that voters would see early benefits from fiscal exemptions of probine income legislation, overtime payments and interest payments for car loans, which begin this year.

It is likely that camera control depends on the electoral result in approximately three dozen of the 435 chamber districts that the three main non -partisan political qualifications of the United States. Republicans currently have a close majority of the 220-212 camera.

Approximately half of those seats are in the hands of the Republicans, among which the most vulnerable is the Swing Nebraska district of the representative Don Bacon. A five -period republican centrist, Bacon, announced his retirement last month after facing Trump for financing priorities and the mandate of the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. His district, which was taken by Democrat Kamala Harris last year and by former President Joe Biden in 2020, is seen by some analysts such as Tips Democrat‘ favor.

Republicans face much better probabilities that protect most of the 53-47 seats. Democrat I have to defend three open seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire next year, while defending a specific republican effort to roughly roughing Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia.

But Democrat Having a new opportunity in North Carolina, where Senator Thom Tillis announced that he would retire while preparing to oppose Trump’s legislation in the Senate due to the cuts in the financing of Medicaid. Trump has presented the name of his daughter -in -law and his former co -president of the Republican National Committee, Lara Trump, as a possible replacement.

Another vulnerable republican is Senator Susan Collins, who joined Tillis and his partner Republican senator Rand Paul to vote against Trump’s legislation Democrat.

Some legislators and analysts argued that Trump’s legislation would not make a difference for voters in 2026.

“Republican voters will lead the conversation points of their leaders and Democrat He will do the same, ”said Sabato.

(David Morgan report, Richard Cowan and Andy Sullivan; Scott Malone and Alistair Bell edition)