Alzheimer’s Could Be Predicted Years Before Symptoms Emerge Using New Risk Tool
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A team of Mayo Clinic scientists has created a way to estimate a person’s risk of developing memory and thinking problems long before Alzheimer’s symptoms begin, which could change how the disease is detected and treated in the future.
The research, published in The Lancet Neurology, is based on decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Aging Study, a long-running effort that tracks thousands of residents over time, according to a news release.
Led by Dr. Clifford Jack Jr., a radiologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, the team analyzed brain scans, genetics and medical records of more than 5,800 adults to build a model that predicts a person’s risk of developing cognitive decline at 10 years and throughout their life.
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Long before forgetfulness or confusion sets in, two key proteins called amyloid and tau begin to accumulate in the brain. Amyloid forms sticky plaques, while tau forms tangles inside brain cells.
Together, they disrupt communication between neurons and eventually cause the memory loss and cognitive problems that are the hallmarks of Alzheimer’s, according to multiple sources.
Mayo Clinic scientists (not pictured) used brain scans to estimate future Alzheimer’s risk years before symptoms appeared. (iStock)
Using specialized brain imaging that measures amyloid buildup, researchers were able to measure the “biological severity” of Alzheimer’s in people who were still cognitively healthy.
The results were expressed on a scale of 0 to 100. A low number means little or no amyloid; a high number indicates significant accumulation.
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“This type of risk estimation could eventually help people and their doctors decide when to start therapy or make lifestyle changes that may delay the onset of symptoms,” study co-author Ronald Petersen, M.D., Ph.D., a neurologist and director of the Mayo Clinic Aging Study, said in the news release.
“It’s similar to how cholesterol levels help predict heart attack risk.”
The researchers say future versions of the model may rely on simple blood tests instead of brain scans. (iStock)
The scientists took into account age, sex and whether the participants carried the APOE ε4 gene, a genetic variant known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s.
They also used a powerful statistical technique to project the probability that each person would develop mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and then dementia over time.
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The researchers found that the higher the levels of amyloid in the brain, the greater the risk of developing memory problems throughout life and at 10 years.
People with the APOE ε4 gene showed the highest risk of developing memory problems later in life. (iStock)
A 75-year-old woman in the study who carried the genetic variant and had high amyloid buildup faced a lifetime risk of more than 80% of developing mild cognitive impairment, a transitional stage between normal aging and dementia that can still allow independent living.
Overall, women had a higher lifetime risk than men, and those with the gene were more likely to experience cognitive decline than those without it.
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The study has some limitations, the researchers acknowledged.
It involved mainly older white adults from one area, so the results may not apply to everyone. It also used expensive brain scans that most people don’t have access to, and didn’t take into account lifestyle or health habits that can affect memory.
“It’s similar to how cholesterol levels help predict heart attack risk.”
For now, the new tool is used only for research, but Mayo Clinic scientists say it is an important step toward personalized Alzheimer’s prevention.
Future versions may include simple blood tests to detect amyloid or other biomarkers, making it easier to assess risk without specialized brain scans.
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The study was funded by the National Institute on Aging, the GHR Foundation, Gates Ventures and the Alexander Family Foundation.
Khloe Quill is a lifestyle production assistant at News Digital. She and the lifestyle team cover a range of topics including food and drink, travel and health.