Can Trump prevent a massive war from the Middle East?

With a continuous attack on high profile objectives in Iran that began on Thursday, Israel has presented President Donald Trump for his most significant foreign policy crisis so far. Trump now has to decide how, and yes, to avoid a total war in the Middle East, which could spirally, putting millions of people on the back, attracting US forces and worsening the global economy. decelerate fed by Trump’s commercial policies.

Israeli aircraft have already reached more than 100 sites, even in the Iranian capital of Tehran, killing at least three military commanders and two nuclear scientists, as well as civilians, including children, according to Iranian state media. Israeli officials have told their American counterparts who plan to continue strikes for “several days or up to two weeks,” a US official, who speaks under anonymity, told News themezone.

Israeli officials call their offensive “with preferential right“, Noting that Iran, an enemy of Tel Aviv for a long time, is closer than ever to be able to develop a nuclear weapon. However, there were no signs of an imminent Iranian attack against Israel, and Iran denied that he intends to build a bomb.

For months, Washington and Tehran have been discussing a possible agreement to limit Iranian nuclear development in exchange for relieving sanctions to the country.

Friday morning, Trump He seemed to ask for diplomacy In its social media platform, Truth Social: “There is still time to do this massacre, with the following attacks already planned even more brutal, get to an end. Iran must make a deal, before nothing is left.”

The Trump administration can fight to shape what comes next, given its limited policy formulation circle, the president’s unpredictability and his hollow the government’s experience. The administration recently cut The staff of the National Security Council of the White House has urged thousands of professional diplomats to resign and plan to say goodbye more as soon as next week, and the first positions in the Pentagon and the State Department are empty.

Even so, some leading officials, such as the Chief of Cabinet of the White House, Susie Wiles and Vice President JD Vance, have previously questioned those who wanted the United States to help Israel attack Iran, as former national security advisor Degraded Mike Waltz. The administration can decide that the reins of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must take it, challenging it as Trump It has become significantly in Syriaand like some conservative voices, such as conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, they have urged him to do so.

“The right division is already obvious,” said Reid Smith, vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together, an organization founded by the right -wing billionaire Charles Koch.

“Israel’s friends, and myself among them, should step cautiously, since a victim of this conflict could essentially be a unanimous support for Israel not only for a bipartisan but also conservatively,” Smith told News themezone.

Atta Kenare through Getty Images

While Trump’s preference for an agreement has been relatively consistent, and Netanyahu’s opposition to one has also done. Some influential foreign policy hawks in the United States are joined, including the main Republican legislators, who argue that Iran cannot be trusted and insist that the only possible commitment would include a clause that Tehran calls unacceptable: a prohibition of any enrichment of uranium. These voices say that force is the only way to paralyze the nuclear program and the Iran press They will go to make concessions.

Since Trump left the last international agreement to limit Iranian nuclear development, negotiated by President Barack Obama, Iran’s capabilities have increased dramatically.

As the main military sponsor of Israel and the key player to enforce the sanctions against Iran, the United States is deeply involved in the dispute. Trump is calling national security officials at the White House on Friday and calling Netanyahu to discuss the next steps.

Meanwhile, developments outside the US control can shape their elections, the United States official told News themezone, who points out the possibility that Iran’s plan of “severe” reprisal “kills one of the tens of thousands of US troops deployed in the Middle East or incite Israel to request an additional American military participation in the region, creating even more tension. Iran has already launched drones in Israel, who were intercepted. The United States evacuated some staff from the region earlier this week.

American and Israeli officials say they coordinated the flood against Iran, who hit sensitive figures and military sites, demonstrating an extensive and effective Israeli espionage. The anti-air hard funds that have long sought the change of regime in Tehran, for now, echo the Trump line that the Israeli attack is linked to its diplomacy.

Even so, a fundamental disconnection between Trump’s and Netanyahu objectives persists, and will make it difficult for the Scale Administration to. The situation reflects a contest within foreign policy circles linked to Trump that has been significant in the configuration of the policy throughout the administration and that can no longer be sustainable.

Trump has affirmed that, for years, he will limit the global conflict, he will promise “peace through force” and accusing his political rivals of allowing blood to spill in contexts such as Ukraine and Gaza, while questions the deployments of US troops abroad. That political brand seemed reflected in the statement on Thursday night of the State Department about the Israeli attack, which emphasized that it was “unilateral” and urged Iran not to “point to the interests of the United States. or personal “.

On Friday, the president told CNN that “hard funds” in Tehran had been killed, which increases the possibilities of diplomacy. And Tom Barrack, the United States ambassador to Turkey and one of the personal friends, Trump trusts as one of the main traffickers of the Middle East, published in X: “Even in tension, there is always a time for dialogue to weave peace.”

Barrack and Steve Witkoff, another commercial figure that leads the negotiations of the United States and Iran for Trump, are seen as more pragmatic than many in the traditional National Security establishment of the Republican Party, and its influence has grown as Trump has repeatedly fired the officials to whom members of their magic movement are too beautiful and linked to the so -called “Deep State.”

“Trump has affirmed, for years, to limit the global conflict, promise ‘peace through force’ and accuse his political rivals of allowing blood to spill in contexts such as Ukraine and Gaza.”

But Netanyahu and influential hawks are openly talking about increasing pressure on Iran, not commitment.

The Israeli leader seems to be betting that, as President Joe Biden did, he can treat the United States as mainly a facilitator of his objectives through military support, reacting to Israeli movements instead of being the events of force.

Netanyahu has been able to do it with its ongoing offensive and devastating backed by the United States in the Gaza Strip, hitting the Palestinians and avoiding a settlement with the militant group based in Gaza Hamas, even when Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration. According to the Biden Administration, Israel was able to use continuous claims of interest in diplomacy and the dramatic Moments focused on PR, such as its mortal search for people in Lebanon, to maintain the support of the United States and calm criticism while doing radical military campaigns.

Now, the professor of the University of George Washington, Marc Lynch, wrote on Friday: “Israel’s attack against Iran is not better understood as preventive or preventive, but as a continuation of his attempt to rebuild the Middle East through force.”

“The pattern of attacks on the first day of Israeli strikes actually suggests that the objective of the attack is the regime itself, not necessarily the nuclear program,” Lynch continued.

It is not clear if Netanyahu’s play book will work under Trump and against a much more capable opponent than Hamas or Hezbollah. As Iran faces greater pain and damage to reputation, it could display a wide range of tactics, throughout the Middle East or even worldwide, to go back against Israel and the United States as a pattern. That could create painful and unexpected consequences and a montage, mortal, tit-for-to violence.

Some observers claim that an army focused approach is the way to achieve Trump’s declared objective to prevent nuclear Iran. “Israel should be acclaimed by non -proliferation organizations,” Jonathan Conricus, former spokesman for Israel’s defense forces who now works at the Hawkish Foundation for the defense of democracies, wrote in Washington, in X.

However, experts, for years, have said that strength alone cannot destroy Iran’s experience in nuclear technology and, on the other hand, could stimulate their leaders to see developing weapons as the only way to protect their rule.

“If the Trump administration really wants to avoid the path of Iran towards a bomb, it should clarify its participation in these strikes and work to reach an agreement. This will be exponentially more difficult if the attacks continue,” wrote Nicole Grajewski, a fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Tank, in Bluesky.