Did the United States arose or the EU as the winner in Trump’s trade agreement?

The new commercial agreement between the United States and European Union According to some experts, they will raise tariffs on imports of goods from EU countries to their highest level and harmed the economic growth of the commercial block.

“It is an asymmetric and unbalanced agreement,” said Economists from the Société investment bank Générale in a report. The EU did not decide to retaliate or increase its tariffs, and even it is expected to reduce them. The EU agreed a bad business instead of risking the escalation of the commercial war. ”

The average tariff on US imports of the EU will increase from 1.2% in 2024 to 17.5%, according to the Capital Economics Investor Advice firm. That will reduce EU’s annual gross domestic product by 0.2%, prognosis of the investment advice firm.

The EU countries annually send more than $ 300 billion in goods to the US, representing more than 20% of the total imports of the United States. UU. Mexico occupies second place among the commercial partners of the United States with approximately 15% of US imports, while Canada represents 11% (see chart at the bottom).

The agreement, announced on Sunday by President Trump and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, imposes a 15% rate of the United States on most EU imports, while US assets exported to the 27 member countries of the union will not face tariffs. Previously, US exports to the EU faced an average rate of approximately 1%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The EU also promised to buy energy worth $ 750 billion from the USA., Compared to approximately $ 80 billion a year, and invest $ 600 billion by 2028.

The trade agreement will promote Americans by increasing access to the vast EU market and support the United States manufacturing sector, according to the Trump administration.

“This colossal agreement will allow farmers, farmers, fishermen and American manufacturers to increase US exports, expand business opportunities and help reduce the commercial deficit of goods with the European Union,” said the White House on Monday on a sheet of facts on the pact.

The White House did not immediately respond to an additional request for comments.

Uncertainty reduction

Although the agreement increases considerably the rates of the United States, economists said the agreement will also help relieve part of uncertainty about commercial relations with a key trade partner. Perhaps the most important thing is better than the alternative since Trump had threatened to slap 30% tariff in EU imports.

In more general terms, the EU agreement and the Trump Administration Framework Agreement with Japan last week – Which establish 15% as a reference tariff, they could also help pave the way for trade agreements with Canada, Korea, Mexico and other countries, even in key sectors such as cars, experts said.

“[C]He operated on the expectations that we had a few weeks before, in particular, when pharmaceutical products and semiconductors could have been subject to higher rates, it seems that this agreement is better than feared, “said Michel Martínez, an economist in Europe of Société Générale, told News Moneywatch.

European car exports would face a 15%tax, below 25%, according to Goldman Sachs. Von der Leyen also said that the United States would eliminate tariffs on some products, including airplanes and parts, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, natural resources, some agricultural products and certain chemical products and generic medicines. Similarly, the EU would abolish tariffs on those products.

Neither the United States nor the EU have published details of the pact, and the lobbying of some industries is expected to continue. For example, a Italian Vini, an Italian commercial group that represents winemakers, said in a statement on Monday that a 15% tariff on EU imports will result in a coup of $ 371 million AA for exporters.

“Now we are asking the Italian government and the EU to consider the appropriate measures to safeguard a sector that has grown significantly thanks to American buyers,” said the group president, Lamberto Frescobaldi, in a statement, while acknowledging that the agreement “at least resolved the uncertainty that the market was stopping.”

According to the group’s analysis, an Italian wine bottle that was previously sold for $ 11.50 in the US. Uu. It will now cost almost $ 15 under the new tariff agreement.

The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which represents German cars manufacturers, also said that an American tariff of 15% on the automotive products of the country will harm their car manufacturers, while noting that the new rate is equivalent to a relief of the US of the US people of 25% they have faced.

Despite the recent trade agreements of the Trump administration with the EU, Japan, the United Kingdom and several other Asian countries, the United States still faces a self -imposed deadline on August 1 to reach agreements with Canada, Mexico, other key commercial partners.

• Duty
• Trump administration
• European Union