Faced with a difficult exit from the Iran war, Trump’s advisors compete to affect the outcome

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) – A complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting public statements on the course of the war with Iran, as his advisers debate when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.

Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that rising gas prices could exact a political toll from U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, while others are pressuring him to maintain the offensive against the Islamic Republic, according to interviews with a Trump adviser and others close to the deliberations.

His observations offer a previously undisclosed glimpse into the White House’s decision-making process as it adjusts its approach to the largest U.S. military operation since the 2003 Iraq War.

The behind-the-scenes maneuverings underscore the high stakes for Trump, who returned to office last year vowing to avoid “stupid” military interventions, nearly two weeks after plunging the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets and disrupted the international oil trade.

The fight for Trump’s attention is a feature of his presidency, but this time the consequences are a matter of war and peace.

Stepping back from the broad goals he laid out when launching the war on Feb. 28, Trump has emphasized in recent days that he sees the conflict as a limited campaign whose military objectives have largely been met.

But the message remains unclear to many, including energy markets, which have lurched in both directions in response to Trump’s remarks.

He told a campaign-style rally in Kentucky on Wednesday that “we won” the war, and then made an abrupt turn: “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We have to finish the job.”

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THE VOICES IN TRUMP’S EAR

Economic advisers and officials, including the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, have warned Trump that an oil crisis and rising gasoline prices could quickly erode already weak domestic support for the war, the adviser and two other people close to the deliberations said, speaking on condition of anonymity to reveal internal discussions.

Political advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles and her deputy James Blair, are making similar arguments, focusing on the political consequences of rising gasoline prices and urging Trump to define victory narrowly and note that the operation is limited and almost over, the sources said.

Among the toughest voices urging Trump to maintain military pressure on Iran are Republican lawmakers such as U.S. Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, and media commentators such as Mark Levin, according to people familiar with the matter.

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They argue that the United States must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and respond forcefully to attacks on American troops and ships.

A third force comes from Trump’s populist base and from figures such as strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing television personality Tucker Carlson, who both publicly and privately have been pressuring him and his top advisers to avoid being drawn into another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

“He’s allowing hawks to believe the campaign is continuing, he wants markets to believe the war could end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited,” the Trump adviser said.

When asked for comment, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: “This story is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who are not even in the room to talk to President Trump.

“The president is known for being a good listener and seeking the opinions of many people, but ultimately everyone knows that he is the final decision maker and their best messenger.”

Others named for their roles in the deliberations did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MESSAGE

While Trump has offered sometimes confusing statements about the Iran war, he has peppered his public comments this week with references to the campaign being a “short-term excursion.”

A person close to the deliberations said that phrase came up during a White House briefing with aides he attended before Trump used the term for the first time at a meeting of Republican lawmakers in Miami on Monday.

The source also said Trump received a memo in preparation for his speech to lawmakers that made a point to note that the war would be short and that the United States was not seeking an open-ended conflict.

In leading the United States into war, Trump offered little explanation, and the administration’s stated war goals range from thwarting an imminent attack by Iran to crippling its nuclear program and replacing its government.

As he seeks a way out of an unpopular conflict, Trump is trying to juggle competing narratives increasingly undermined by Iran’s continued attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and neighboring states.

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Top political and economic advisers, whose prewar warnings about a possible economic shock were largely ignored, appear to have played a major role in boosting Trump’s efforts to calm nervous markets and contain rising oil and gas prices.

Some White House advisers are discussing an ending in which Trump would declare military objectives have been met, followed by a shift toward sanctions, deterrence and negotiations, according to two people familiar with the matter. However, not all attendees agree with this approach, they said.

Wave after wave of US and Israeli airstrikes have killed top Iranian leaders among some 2,000 people in total – some as far away as Lebanon – devastated its ballistic missile arsenal, sunk much of its navy, and degraded its ability to support its armed allies across the Middle East.

Trump has said he will decide when to end the campaign. He and his advisers say they are well ahead of the four- to six-week timeline Trump initially announced.

For their part, Iran’s rulers will claim victory, analysts say, simply by surviving the US-Israeli attack, especially after demonstrating their ability to fight back and inflict damage on Israel, the United States and their allies.

CALCULATION ERROR IN VENEZUELA

The Strait of Hormuz will be critical to the final trajectory of the war. A fifth of the world’s oil shipments, which normally pass through the narrow waterway, are almost at a standstill. In recent days, Iran has attacked oil tankers in Iraqi waters and other ships near the strait.

If Iran’s dominance over the waterway drives U.S. gas prices high enough, that could increase political pressure on Trump to end the campaign. His Republican Party is defending narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections.

So far, most members of his “Make America Great Again” movement have largely stuck with him on Iran, despite criticism from some supporters who oppose military interventions.

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Trump has recently refrained from promoting the idea that the war seeks to overthrow the government in Tehran. U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is not at risk of collapse anytime soon, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

At least some of the confusion over the trajectory of the war appears to be rooted in the rapid U.S. military success in Venezuela.

Since the start of the war, some advisers have struggled to convince Trump that the Iran campaign was unlikely to play out in the same way as the Jan. 3 raid that captured President Nicolás Maduro, according to another source familiar with the administration’s thinking.

That operation paved the way for Trump to coerce former Maduro loyalists into giving him considerable control over the country’s vast oil reserves, without requiring prolonged U.S. military action.

Iran, by contrast, has proven to be a much tougher and better-armed enemy with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.

A source familiar with US intelligence reports rejected claims by Trump advisers that Iran had been within weeks of being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Trump said last June that the US-Israeli bombing had “wiped out” his nuclear program.

Most of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have been buried by the June attacks, meaning the material could potentially be recovered and purified until it is bomb-grade. Iran has always denied that it seeks nuclear weapons.

(Reporting by Nandita Bose, Matt Spetalnick and Humeyra Pamuk, additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle, Nathan Layne, Jonathan Landay and Steve Holland; writing by Matt Spetalnick; editing by Don Durfee, Ross Colvin, William Mallard and Gareth Jones)