Here is what Trump should do immediately to avoid an American war with Iran

President Donald Trump hurried on Thursday the fear that he would rush an American war with Iran, saying He would take up to two weeks to decide if the US forces would join the strikes and describe a “substantial opportunity” for diplomacy.

His statement came when Israel continues to attack Iran, stimulating Iranian bombs in response. If the war intensifies, the risk of even greater violence is in the Middle East and unpredictable, dangerous consequences. Analysts fear Iran pointing to Americans, causing a spiral of Trump’s revenge or freezing the global economy, while they also warn an sample of overwhelming force to try to disapprove of their regime could lead to chaos there by dozens of millions and the increase in even more bellicose and volatile forces.

It is possible that Trump indefinitely delay a decision, since he listens to advisors with competitive opinions or remains in a cycle of flip flops, as he has done with his approach To the tariffs, that investors and some democrats have made fun of “Trump always the chickens”, or Taco.

But given the determination between the defenders of the American-Israeli joint bombardment, who point out Trump’s promise and previous US presidents to prevent them from building a nuclear weapon and highlights the advanced enrichment program of Uranium of Iran, a lasting broken tensions depends on negotiations that produce results quickly and put the United States continuous.

Trump has demonstrated a continuous openness to the opinions of Hawks, more recently saying on Friday than the United States intelligence community was wrong to completely conclude that Iran will not rush to develop a nuclear weapon. (Israel states that this is the case, but most American officials and independent observers doubt that statement).

Diplomacy is complex because the United States, Iran and those trying to mediate, such as European and Arab governments, are effectively trying two separate problems simultaneously. Tehran and Washington must address the current war between Israel and Iran, if not to finish it, then at least clearly limit it, and have enough confidence in the possibility of a significant commitment in Iran’s nuclear program that talks about that matter can start seriously.

To do so, both the United States and Iran will need to rebuild confidence between the two countries, which was destroyed after Israel’s attack days before the US planned conversations. UU., Experts told News themezone.

“An immediate and face to the United States-Iran“Said Suzanne Dimaggio, the main fellow in the International International Peace Expert Group, in an email.”American officials must provide Tehran guarantees that they will not advance with direct military participation in the Israel campaign while the conversations are in Progreso. “

“The United States has a strong negotiation leverage: it would be an error of epic proportions not to use it.”

– Suzanne Dimaggio, Maingie Endowment For International Peace

The two parts rarely communicate directly. Even so, they could be transmitted to each other through Arab and European officials.

The British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, was in Washington on Thursday for consultations with Trump Steve Witkoff’s special envoy and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. After the meeting, Lammy wrote In X: “We discussed how an agreement could avoid a conflict of deepening.” Lammy and the Foreign Ministers of France and Germany met with Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in Geneva. Subsequently, European officials issued a statement by praising “efforts made by the United States to seek a negotiated solution” and pointing out “their willingness to meet again in the future.”

Calling the discussion between Araghchi and European officials “an opening” towards “an interim understanding,” Dimaggio told News themezone that the Trump administration could see a path to an eventual agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that implies significant concessions towards Washington. (Trump left Iran’s previous nuclear agreement, calling him too weak, in 2018).

“The United States has a strong negotiation leverage: it would be an error of epic proportions not to use it,” he wrote.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a skeptic of diplomacy for a long time with Iran. He sees the current moment as a unique opportunity to achieve his goal of long data of the participation of the United States in an Israeli campaign against Tehran. It is doubtful that it stops Israeli attacks even if US-syasy discussions begin. And some fear that Netanyahu and his aggressive allies will derail incipient attempts of conversations. Israel could launch an unexpected staggered attack, and the United States army continues to accumulate military assets in the region, which could promote Trump to act. Those efforts are being supervised by the The influential and adhesive American military commander for the region, Erik Kurilla.

However, possible negotiations could still take step by step.

“While an absolute ending of Israeli aggression can be an unrealistic condition to fulfill the breath, a calibrated and savings step of the face by the United States that indicates the restriction and some economic relief perhaps to take Iran to the table, especially if it is mediated through regional actors of trust,” said Abdullah Baabood, a visiting professor of international studies at the University of Waseda in Japan. He suggested that Washington could defrost some Iranian economic assets abroad, allow the country to export more oil or provide public and private commitments that the United States seeks decline and will not allow Israel to attack sensitive Iranian nuclear facilities such as the evasion enrichment plant.

The Governments of the Middle East who are transmitting messages between Tehran and Washington, such as Baabood’s Native Oman, are extremely interested in avoiding an American strike against Iran, he told News themezone.

“Gulf leaders … fear a full -fledged war of what Tehran does not like. A limited strike of the United States would almost surely cause reprisals, not only symbolic, but staggered,” Baabood said. It is widely believed that Iran could respond to the United States that enters the war attacking US military bases in the region, in the states of the Persian or Iraq Gulf, or interrupting the energy trade routes in which regional economies depend.

“The majority of regional actors believe that climbing is more likely that containment if the first missile is launched. The region is preparing not only for a confrontation but also because of its long tail of chaos, and doing everything possible, particularly through Oman and Qatar, to avoid that first step,” Baabood continued.

Khoshiran through Getty Images

Popular dynamics both in Iran and the United States will be important factors in the perspectives of peace and in the configuration of any agreement.

Without “a coast of feeling against war” in the United States, “the war machine moves,” said Narges Bberhli, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. “Trump won’t enter [to Iran] As he thought he would do it on Wednesday and Thursday because his base turned against him. We have to wait and see if that movement grows. “

Right -wing commentators Like Steve Bannon And Tucker Carlson has been significantly urging Trump to be careful to join Netanyahu’s offensive. To some extent, the United States, of course, is already involved in the war: US forces are helping to tear down Iranian retaliation attacks on Israel and the continuous attacks of Israel are based on the assumption that the United States will eventually replace their stocks of weapons.

Meanwhile, in Iran, the expansion of Israeli attacks to civil neighborhoods has reinforced the meaning, even among the skeptics of the repressive government, “which are in this largest regional war,” he said. That will probably reduce the possibilities that Iran accept to completely abandon nuclear enrichment, since some aggressive voices in Israel and the United States want.

“There was an almost zero opportunity … now it is a negative opportunity,” Bajhli continued.

“They will not accept disarmament only for their own knowledge of the history of Iran and the history of Israel and the history of the United States,” he said, pointing to Trump and President Joe Biden Armando to Israel in the last two years as he released devastating wars in Gaza, where the murder of Palestinians is in progress, and Lebanon, while he also seizes Syria.

If Trump seeks to prevent his presidency from being defined by a catastrophic war, tolerating some level of Iranian uranium enrichment may be necessary. The will to do so could also be driven by the sense in Israel that Iranian attacks can no longer tolerate, which have spread to reach sensitive places as an important hospital, Bochli said, since Tehran has tried to “establish deterrence.”

Although an agreement can be preferable to all parties, the complex dynamic in negotiations means that they could easily crumble, particularly in the middle of a deep distrust of Washington by the Gaza War and its formulation of policies in recent decades.

“Throughout the Middle East, there is no illusion. You cannot even say rhetorically that the United States can be a mediator. The United States has released all his eggs in the basket of Israel, “Bajhli said.” And the United States has demonstrated, before Trump, that negotiations and ‘agreements’ do not really mean much. That is why the situation is like a firecracker; That is why it is so dangerous. “