Israel’s dangerous war against Iran is intensifying with Donald Trump’s tacit blessing

President Donald Trump proclaimed Saturday afternoon that the new war in the Middle East, initiated by Israel against his enemy Iran, “should end.” But as the Israeli offensive enters its third day, the conflict is expanding, with few signs that the United States will use its influence as the main military and diplomatic sponsor of Israel to stop the assault on Iranian objectives. This has caused reprisals for Iran and the increase in fears that US military sites and crucial global trade routes will soon be affected.

Trump has repeatedly said that he wants an agreement with Iran drastically limit his nuclear program in exchange for relief of punishing the economic sanctions directed by the United States, some supporters of the assault statement of Israel of Israel, will make Iran more willing to commit and anxious to quickly reach an agreement. On the other hand, on Saturday he brought a confirmation of Oman, the Middle East Nation that houses indirect negotiations between US and Israeli officials, that the next round of planned conversations has been canceled. Experts in nuclear diplomacy said they saw that the smaller and smaller possibilities that Tehran agreed an agreement soon.

Meanwhile, new signs of Israel’s determination emerged to cause even greater damage to Iran, while the Trump administration struggles to prepare a response to the crisis. Israel twice attacked Iran’s energy infrastructure, a central component of the country’s economy, indicated The will to kill the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatolá Ali Khamenei and pushed Washington will join a strike in the most sensitive nuclear site in Iran, that Israeli forces are not equipped to attack on their own.

“I don’t think Israelis stops,” an Arab diplomat told News themezone on Saturday anonymity condition.

The diplomat said that the regional governments near the United States, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan and others, had condemned the Israeli campaign and said that the officials of some of those nations were exploring the efforts to reduce tensions. Qatar and Oman, who have a deep mediation experience, are trying to reach coordination with the United States, while Saudi officials are encouraging diplomacy through a different channel, added the diplomat.

Even so, they argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had used the campaign against Iran, which began on Thursday with a dramatic wave of strikes about military leaders and nuclear objectives, to obtain several victories already. France and Saudi Arabia have postponed a high profile conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that was planned for next week and hoped to press Israel for a resolution in their war in Gaza. Meanwhile, the attention of the ongoing Palestinian suffering has been redirected, the diplomacy of the United States-I will have put on ice and the deep capacity of intelligence of Israel has been demonstrated in Iran, emboldeing the opponents of the regime within the country’s own borders.

“Why stop now?” The diplomat asked.

However, the risks raised by war are increasingly clear. Israeli attacks in Iran again hit the densely populated capital of Tehran on Sunday morning, local time, and Iranian missiles have repeatedly hit Israeli cities. Until now, at least 80 Iranians, including children, have been delicatein addition to at least seven Israelis. War analysts point out that the rounds of violence can create their own logic of constant revenge and climb.

Washington’s position is critical.

American officials and others who track the Middle East and more say that the conflict could feed violence outside Iran and Israel, potentially on the river paths of the Persian Gulf or against the 2,500 US troops parked in Iraq, or in the tens of thousands of people in the neighborhood. Even involuntary blood spill could drastically increase tensions and feed a larger title.

Faiz Abu Rmeleh through Getty Images

“Our military bases and dependents are in a maximum alert state. If something happens to them due to, for example, a street missile from Iran or a drone or in some other misfortune … That is in this administration, you cannot put that only in Netanyahu and cannot put that only in the” Iranian military, a former American official told News themezone.

Until now, the Trump administration shows a limited capacity to avoid a broad disaster, even if doing so aligns with the president’s long data, represents “peace through force.”

It is very unlikely that the current episode concludes with Iran’s nuclear agreement that Trump continues to demand, Ali Váez, a researcher of the International Crisis Expert Group.

Trump had previously denied Netanyahu’s suggestions of an attack against Iran, reiterating his support for diplomacy led by his friend and commercial partner Steve Witkoff. But as the conversations had done it for this month not to bear fruit, Trump and Witkoff probably felt that they will “had too much nuclear influence” and that with “a weaker hand”, Tehran would accept the strictest demand of an agreement, Vaez said: dismantling their ability to enrich uranium.

Instead, “the door to diplomacy is closed in the predictable future,” he continued. “They believe that the United States is an accomplice of Israel’s attacks against Iran, so in addition to the fact that Iranians never want to negotiate from a position of weakness, there is now an even more deep distrust in the intentions of the Trump administration.”

The president also left Iran’s previous nuclear agreement in 2018, promoting the current dilemma by ending international limits in Iranian nuclear development and bringing him closer to build a weapon: the factor that Israel has cited to justify its attack. (Iran denies that I intend to build nuclear bombs).

Claim Gharibadi, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, saying In a Saturday interview, his country will degrade its already limited cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, a global control agency.

While some foreign policy hawks in Israel and the United States claim that the ongoing Israeli attack will help Trump’s businesses, VAEZ said Tehran will refuse to negotiate on the subject while it is under fire.

Even once the current fight of fighting is over, the renewal of diplomacy will take time. If the war ends with “a draw, the Iranians have to recover some influence,” including potentially abandoning one of the remaining limits in its nuclear program, their membership in the International Non -Proliferation Treaty, Vaez said. If they will face a great military defeat, with its destroyed nuclear program, Tehran would not see any benefit in an agreement that Trump could promote, since he could not gain incentives from the United States, he continued.

It is unlikely that eliminating Iranian capabilities and even scientists ten are the institutional knowledge of decades in the country, while reinforcing the voices in Iran who say they must focus on obtaining a nuclear deterrent element.

“The only situation in which Iran returns to conversations now is if the United States keeps Israel verified and makes significant concessions to Iran in its program. Even then, it is difficult to overcome the lesson learned that if they had a weapon, this would not have happened, “Dina Espandiary, the driving of the Middle East in Bloomberg Geoeconomics, wrote In X.

Trump must negotiate a path to follow in the midst of disagreements with Israel and among the members of his own staff.

The president could “press for the restriction at this stage,” telling Netanyahu to claim victory instead of continuing a prolonged and bloody war for possible objectives like possible to Gaza’s conflict, said the former US official, and added: “You can say that you get your pound of meat, but you will be better than being better than better than [President Joe] Biden: You will not let the Israelis make stupid shit. “

A remarkable faction of conservatives believes that the president should see that the Israeli leader is chasing an objective beyond an agreement and rejecting the idea of ​​US intervention or providing important additional airplanes and bombs.

“It is beginning to seem that the regime change is the goal,” Vice President Smith, a Vice President of Foreign Policy at Stand, an organization founded by the right billionaire Charles Koch.

Internally, part of Trump’s staff is “urging restriction and prioritization. They are understandably allergic to be attracted by another war of uncertain dimension in the Middle East when the strategic emphasis should reorient attention to the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere,” Smith continued. Depending on how these debates go, “Israel will have to calibrate their expectations … according to what the United States is willing to provide.”

However, the most bellicose officials, Republican legislators and donors and anti-air experts are encouraging Israeli attack. And they seem eager to use the time to reject the figures aligned by Trump that seek less American intervention in the Middle East, such as Elbridge Colby, a senior official in the Pentagon, according to a Saturday night report in Traffic light. The aggressive commentators have highlighted an interview that Trump gave the Atlantic on Saturday in which he rejected the criticisms of the skeptics of the Iran War as Tucker Carlson that he was abandoning his motto “America First” by allowing Netanyahu’s offensive.

Given the unpredictable nature of the president, VAEZ said that his final option on whether to restrict Israel could be molded by the pressure of Maga’s figures to conversations with the Arab leaders whom Trump has personal and financial ties, such as the ruler of Qatar, whose joint gas field with Iran was beaten by Israel on Saturday.

For now, anticipate the situation of “intensify more and get worse.”