Nancy Pelosi may have her most serious rival yet

California state Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, is reportedly running for the seat that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has held for nearly 40 years, resisting calls for him to step aside and make way for the next generation of lawmakers.

Wiener, 55, whose planned campaign was reported Friday by The New York Times and The San Francisco Standard, is not Pelosi’s first primary challenger, but he is perhaps her most serious yet.

Wiener, a former San Francisco supervisor who has represented the city and part of a neighboring county in the California State Senate since 2017, has built a high profile by successfully pushing for more housing development, protections for transgender Americans and a requirement that presidential candidates disclose their tax returns to appear on the California ballot in 2020. (President Donald Trump did so.) sued over it, and the courts eventually struck down the policy).

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“Few will want to upset her by supporting her opponent or making contributions,” Maviglio said. “Wiener is an attractive candidate with a strong legislative record. But defeating Pelosi, the patriarch of SF politics and a national hero to many Democrats, is a tall order, particularly in a top-two race.”

Although Pelosi, 85, has filed candidacy paperwork to run again in 2026, she has not formally announced her plans. He has never competed in a close race, except for the special election in which he first ran for the seat in 1987.

Wiener, who also filed that paperwork over the summer, has made no secret of his aspirations for Pelosi’s seat, but previously indicated he would wait until she stepped aside to launch a campaign.

via News

“I have made it clear that I intend to run for this position when the race opens, whether in 2026 or 2028,” Wiener said in a statement when filing the paperwork.

Wiener’s office did not respond when asked to comment on the reports, but sources familiar with the plans told the Standard that an announcement is expected from him next week.

When contacted for comment, he told the outlet: “I’ve been preparing and raising money for when the race starts.”

Although she resigned as speaker of the House of Representatives in 2022, Pelosi is considered one of the most powerful women in politics. She regularly spars with Trump and reportedly played a pivotal role in pressuring former President Joe Biden to drop out of the race last year, paving the way for then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ ultimately unsuccessful campaign.

“I doubt the lure of generational change will be enough to dislodge her.”

– California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio

The biggest threat to Pelosi’s legacy may be her refusal to resign. A poll conducted by Beacon Research for Saikat Chakrabarti, who is running for Pelosi’s seat after serving as chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), found that 51% of people had supported Pelosi in the past but “now think it’s time for a change.”

But Maviglio is skeptical that interest in new faces will be enough to unseat Pelosi.

“I doubt the appeal of generational change will be enough to unseat her,” he said, adding that he hopes Wiener will focus on this in his campaign.

“If it were a vacant seat,” he said, “it would be a completely different story.”