Number of young adults identifying as transgender drops by nearly half in two years

More data is emerging to support a sharp decline in the number of young adults who identify as transgender or non-binary.

Last week, News Digital reported on data shared by Eric Kaufman, a politics professor at the University of Buckingham, showing that the proportion of college students who identify as anything other than male or female has dropped by half in just two years.

Now, Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University, has identified additional data that appears to confirm these findings on a broader scale.

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First, Twenge analyzed data from the nationally representative Household Pulse survey, which directly asked people whether they identified as transgender, as she stated in an article for Generation technology.

“Household Pulse data showed a decline in trans identification among 18- to 22-year-olds in 2024, but I was cautious in drawing conclusions from it, as the decline appeared only in a limited time period (July to September 2024), and two of the three survey administrations added an option for nonbinary identification that didn’t exist before,” she wrote. “Maybe that’s why identification as trans decreased.”

Next, the professor, who is also the author of the book “Generations: The Real Differences Between Generation Z, Millennials, Generation X, Boomers, and Silents,” examined another nationally representative survey.

The Cooperative Election Study (CES), a nonprobability survey conducted each year in the fall by YouGov and administered by Tufts University, asked about transgender identification among all American adults from 2021 to 2024. It also included a separate question about identifying as nonbinary.

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In 2021, 2022 and 2024, the CES asked: “Do you identify as transgender?” The options were “yes,” “no,” and “I prefer not to say.”

“I’d rather not say” responses were treated as missing data, Twenge shared with News Digital.

As of 2021, the CES sex/gender question asked: “What is your gender?” with options of “man,” “woman,” “nonbinary,” and “other.”

Among 18- to 22-year-olds, trans identification fell by almost half between 2022 and 2024, and non-binary identification fell by more than half between 2023 and 2024.

“When I looked at adults of all ages in the survey… I found a large increase in identifying as transgender from those born before 1980 (Gen

“Identifying as transgender decreased, especially among those born in 2005 and 2006 (who are now between 18 and 20 years old).”

“I think the question now is not whether trans is in decline, but to what extent it will decline.”

There are several theories as to why this happens.

“One possibility is changes in acceptance; as acceptance increased, more young adults identified as transgender and/or were willing to identify as transgender in a survey,” Twenge said. “When acceptance decreased, identification as transgender (or at least identification as transgender in a survey) decreased.”

In previous analyzes looking at data from another survey, Twenge found that the increase in identifying as transgender between 2014 and 2023 did not extend to people over 45 (Gen X and boomers).

“That makes it less likely that the changes are due to acceptance, which should affect people of all ages,” he said. “However, it is possible that acceptance increased the most among young adults between 2014 and 2023 and then decreased further in 2024.”

Twenge emphasized that identifying as transgender and identifying as non-binary are two different things.

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“One of the reasons I did this analysis was because the surveys that Professor Kaufmann relied on did not ask about identifying as transgender, but rather about identifying as non-binary or something other than male or female,” he said. “I wanted to see if there was a decline in identifying as transgender.”

He added: “I also thought it was important to look at a nationally representative sample and not just students at elite schools.”

Kaufmann applauded Twenge’s new report, calling her “the best in the business.”

“It was good to see that the leading researchers of the academic generation are following up,” he told News Digital. “Their data greatly reinforces what I found using the FIRE, Brown and Andover Phillips data.”

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“I think the question now is not whether trans is in decline,” he added, “but to what extent it will decline and what the implications will be for the progressive cultural project and for trends in gender surgery and diagnosis.”

“Maybe young people are realizing that they don’t have to advertise or label everything about themselves for it to be valid.”

Jonathan Alpert, a New York City psychotherapist, said this change likely marks a “natural correction.”

“For a time, we taught young people to overinterpret every feeling. The therapeutic culture told them that every discomfort needed a label or a diagnosis,” Alpert, who was not involved in the cited surveys, previously told News Digital. “For some, that label became ‘non-binary,’ meaning not identifying with a gender.”

Instead of rejecting who they are, Alpert said, youths You may simply be tired of feeling pressure to define every emotion or difference with a new identity.

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“So essentially what’s slowing down is performance, at least based on what this study showed,” he said. “A few years ago, identity was treated almost like a social badge. Now, maybe young people are realizing that they don’t have to advertise or label everything about themselves for it to be valid.”

Alpert said he sees the same pattern in his own therapy practice.

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“Once people feel more comfortable [with] who they are, they no longer need to define themselves so rigidly. To me, that’s a sign of growing self-confidence, not intolerance.”

News Digital has reached out to Tufts University and the US Census Bureau for comment.