Republicans fight to avoid massacre in Texas Senate race

AUSTIN, Texas – Seven months and $60 million later, Senate Republicans’ efforts to bail out a top member of their caucus have proven completely ineffective, raising concerns that the party could lose a state election in Texas for the first time in three decades and give Democrats another path to reclaim a Senate majority.

Despite spending vastly more in the final weeks leading up to the March 3 primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the Republican race to replace incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a race that is likely to go to a runoff election next month. A disappointing performance by Cornyn could seal his fate even before that happens, so he’s stepping up his attacks on Paxton this week, predicting an electoral bloodbath for the Republican Party if the far-right and ethically troubled Paxton becomes the nominee.

“We will have a massacre on Election Day,” Cornyn warned at an early voting kickoff event Tuesday. “Republicans up and down will pay the price for having a liability like our corrupt attorney general around their necks. If Ken Paxton tops the ticket, we risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and that will take its toll on everyone on the ballot.”

“Complacency kills,” he added. “Complacency kills relationships, it kills careers, it kills countries, and it kills big political parties, like the Republican Party here in Texas.”

The 74-year-old senator, serving his fifth term in the Senate, hopes GOP primary voters in Texas will be motivated by appeals to ethics and decorum in the era of Trump, twice divorced and twice impeached by a Democratic-controlled US House of Representatives. Paxton was impeached in 2023 by the GOP-controlled Texas House of Representatives for bribery and abuse of power. His wife also divorced him last year for “biblical reasons,” including accusations of adultery. But Trump has supported the hardline conservative, dismissing his impeachment as “unfair” and a “disgrace.” He has even proposed him as a possible candidate for attorney general of the United States.

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When asked this week about the primary, Trump disappointed Republicans by refusing to throw a lifeline to Cornyn. Instead, he said he supports “all three” candidates, including Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), another Trump ally running for the seat.

However, polls have consistently shown Paxton leading the race and there is little evidence that the tens of millions Cornyn allies have spent on the race so far have swayed voters. TO survey of likely University of Houston primary voters released last week showed Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The poll also showed that Cornyn, who has never been beloved by the Republican base because of his history working in the party opposite the aisle, lost to Paxton by 11 points in a runoff.

The outcome could reverberate beyond Texas: Traders from both parties believe Cornyn would be a heavy favorite in November, while Paxton would put Republican control of the seat at risk, especially if state Rep. James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination. Democrats do not see a victory in Texas as a key part of their path to the Senate majority in 2026, but a victory there would open more paths for them to reach the necessary 51 seats.

That’s how Republicans, including super PACs controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have justified spending $60 million to stop Paxton’s campaign, arguing that doing so will save them from having to spend $100 million or more to bail out a weaker candidate in November.

The problem? The spending so far has had little effect. The bombing may backfire, as it has allowed Paxton to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate taking on special interests in Washington.

“His money comes from the D.C. establishment, and that’s how he can afford these commercials, and that’s how they always try to convince us in Washington, with their money, that we should draft his person,” Paxton said this week at an event in Tyler, Texas. “Well, I’m not your person and I’ll never be your person. I’m going to stay here and fight for all of you.”

“They are spending millions to convince you that he has done things he has not done and that he has supported Trump all along. It is not true,” he added.

Paxton, 63, has held relatively few public events so far. He is not a dynamic speaker, and when he appears on the campaign trail, he can seem stiff and awkward. But conservatives love his record of fighting President Barack Obama’s administration during his three terms as Texas attorney general and his legal efforts to challenge Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election. Much of the $60 million has gone to television advertisements questioning Paxton’s ethics and highlighting his divorce, but his followers don’t seem to care.

“I like his ethics,” said Molly Deems, a retired teacher who showed up to hear Paxton speak at a restaurant in Tyler on Tuesday. “I think he’s very strong. He knows what the Constitution says and he’s going to do what he says he’s going to do.”

“Divorce shouldn’t matter,” he added of Paxton’s personal life. “I don’t think that should ever matter. A man’s private life is a man’s private life. It’s what he does when he’s in that office.”

“I’d like a change. Cornyn’s been there for 20 years,” added Ivan Sturgeon, another Tyler native who is still deciding whether to support Paxton or Hunt.

Hunt, a 43-year-old U.S. Army veteran from Houston, entered the race late last year. angry Top Republicans who believe his candidacy will divide the primary electorate and ultimately help Paxton win the nomination. The two-term congressman has been criticized for his prolonged absences in Washington, where he has been unable to vote in critical votes, causing headaches for the Republican leadership, which is struggling with a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

Senate Republicans who support Cornyn also fear that an ugly primary in Texas will hurt the GOP’s efforts to retain its Senate seat, as well as other more competitive Senate races around the country.

“It just means that we end up spending a lot more resources that then can’t be used in other races, which are really tough races,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told News themezone.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), meanwhile, complained about what he called a “horrible” decision by Turning Point USA to endorse Paxton. The conservative political group founded by Charlie Kirk is popular among Trump supporters, especially those on college campuses.

“Whoever thought this was a good idea really doesn’t understand the headwinds we have to deal with,” Tillis said.

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At Cornyn’s campaign event in Austin on Tuesday, which was held at a Tex-Mex restaurant, dozens of mostly older and wealthier supporters gathered to hear him talk about the race. He touted his seniority in the Senate and his ability to bring home billions of dollars as reasons why Texas can’t afford to change to a new face in Washington right now. He also downplayed questions about Trump’s decision not to endorse him.

“The president knows he can trust me to be there to support him and his agenda, and I appreciate that, but it will be up to him to make that decision,” Cornyn said. “I think he likes a good fight and will see one here in Texas.”

Randy Hickel, a doctor from Lubbock, Texas, who supports Cornyn, said he was concerned about the direction of his party, especially if it ends up nominating someone like Paxton, who has a history of questioning the science and effectiveness of vaccines.

“I’m disappointed by some of the things we’re seeing in the Republican Party,” Hickel told News themezone. “And it’s not just about a philosophical shift further to the right. It’s about some of the people he’s advocating for.”

“I don’t like the anti-science movement that is underway and that denies clear evidence,” he added. “It is difficult to be on the side that denies scientific evidence. Could there be polarization or politicization of the interpretation of data? Sure. Denying science is regrettable.”

Former Republican Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who also attended the event and spoke in support of his re-election, said he couldn’t even imagine what he would do if Paxton wins the nomination next month.

“I have no idea. What are we going to do if the aliens fall before the election?” he asked rhetorically.