Veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz is warning the GOP that Texas has the “exact ingredients” for a potential Democratic defeat in the November election for a U.S. Senate seat.

“For the last 20 or 25 years Texas has been assumed to be solidly Republican,” he told NewsNation’s Leland Vittert. “But the demographics have been changing.”

He said the state is becoming less white and Democrats are better organized. Additionally, this year Democrats are seeing “incredibly high” turnout in special elections and primaries across the country.

In Texas, more than 2.2 million people voted in this week’s Democratic primary — a midterm record for the state — as state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, who currently serves in the Texas House of Representatives, speaks Wednesday for the first time since winning the Democratic nomination.
Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, who currently serves in the Texas House of Representatives, speaks Wednesday for the first time since winning the Democratic nomination.

Eric Gay/AP

“If you’re a Democrat, you can’t wait to vote,” Luntz said. “All Democrats are looking to participate.

Some Republican voters, on the other hand, are staying home.

And in Texas, there’s another problem: a cruel primary that’s about to get even uglier as the race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn heads to a runoff.

President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to endorse Cornyn, with the expectation that Paxton will then leave office.

But Paxton has indicated he will not do so.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (left) will face Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff for Cornyn's seat.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (left) will face Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff for Cornyn’s seat.

Julio Cortez/AP; Jack Myervia/AP

“The Republicans still have a clear advantage,” Luntz said. “But that lead has been getting smaller and smaller. And when you have two candidates destroying each other, like these two are, this is the exact ingredient that you could have low Republican turnout in November, a divided party, you could possibly see a Democrat surprising people.”

Luntz also warned Republicans that control over the Senate could hinge on a single issue, and it’s one that isn’t helping the GOP right now: affordability.

“That’s all,” he said. “That’s the deciding factor.”

See more of that conversation below.

Remember what happened to Georgia’s Senate seats during the 2020 election?

If Republicans continue to attack each other in the Texas Senate GOP runoff primary, his seat could be vulnerable this November.

Spoke to @LelandVittert about what this could mean for 2026. 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/jVzuOZlS4X

– Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 6, 2026

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A confrontation is looming that they have spent more than $60 million trying to avoid.

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the GOP primary to replace incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), setting off alarm bells in the party.

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No candidate in the closely watched Republican Senate race received the majority of votes needed to win the nomination, setting up a May 26 runoff.

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Victory could lead to a competitive election in the Lone Star State in November.

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Remember what happened to Georgia’s Senate seats during the 2020 election?

If Republicans continue to attack each other in the Texas Senate GOP runoff primary, his seat could be vulnerable this November.

Spoke to @LelandVittert about what this could mean for 2026. 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/jVzuOZlS4X

– Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 6, 2026