The Congress map approved by Trump of Texas could end up delaying

Texas Republicans are on the way to enacting a new map of the Congress district before the intermediate works of 2026 that creates five new Republican seats: Wednesday night, the Texas Chamber approved a new set of district maps that strongly favor Republicans. The effort occurred in the insistence of an increasingly unpopular president, Donald Trump, who pressed the Governor of Texas Greg Abbott, a Republican, to call a special session to eliminate democratic seats to prevent them from retaking the United States house next year.

But Texas Democrats see potential failures in the new Republican maps, which they hope to use to minimize losses with a campaign directed in some of the new districts.

“The strategy behind this new map is based on two assumptions, which we believe are incorrect,” said Katherine Fischer, director of the majority of Texas PAC, a Super PAC that works closely with the Texas Democratic Party in an effort to turn the state blue in 2032.

These two assumptions are that Trump’s success in Texas in 2024 will automatically translate the vote, and that Latin voters, who changed strongly towards the Republicans last year, will continue to be republican voters, according to a report by the majority of Texas PAC published on Thursday.

None of those things is a fact, the majority of Texas Pac argues. Trump support, which has always been a fairly unique political figure, does not necessarily translate into support for Republican candidates who run for the United States Congress or state legislative seats.

They also point out the previous elections as evidence. In 2024, the Senate Democratic candidate Colin Allred beat Democratic presidential nominated Kamala Harris in 5.5% throughout the state and in each of the newly created districts. Although there did not reach the majority in any of those seats, and did not win his career, the 2018 Senate candidate, Beto O’Rourke, won majorities in four of the five new seats in a much more favorable environment. Since the intermediate works of 2026 are likely to be a referendum on the presidency of Trump and its unpopular policies, they are expected to be closer to composition to the partial exams of 2018 than the 2024 presidential cycle.

Austin American-Statesman/Hearst newspapers through Getty Images

Republicans expect their advances with Latin voters to mitigate possible compositional changes in the electorate that occur during a mid -period cycle. But that is also a rather large assumption. Trump’s current impopularity is being driven by the falls between voters and young Latinos. A quarter of Latin voters who supported Trump in 2024 are disappointed with their presidency or regret supporting him and 11% would vote for a Democrat in 2026, according to a July survey conducted by Equis Research. Those who are disappointed or regret supporting Trump say they disagree with their mass deportation policies and firmly feel that he has done nothing about their promise to reduce prices.

None of those problems will disappear. Trump’s mass deportation will only increase, as the Republicans approved legislation that delivers the agencies of application of the law $ 170 billion in new funds. Inflation measurements and expectations continue to advance projections as Trump tariffs increase the cost of goods and services.

“If this remains relief, Latin voters, and voters of all ages, races, genres, geographies, will move away from Trump and the members of the Republican congresses who supported this agenda,” said Fischer.

The Ball Democrats also surpassed Harris in strongly Latin districts throughout the state in 2024. While Trump beat Harris in the districts of Congress 28 and 34, both strongly Latinos, the democratic representatives headlines Henry Cuellar and Vicente González won re -election. Similarly, there won majorities in both districts.

But that is why the Republicans attacked the districts of Cuellar and González to be redesigned. The new map puts them both in districts that voted for Trump by 10%. Even so, the Democrats believe that these two seats will remain competitive and can sustain them if the political tide goes against the Republicans.

“We believe that, according to the available data, Latin support for Democrats will be better than the last cycle, although it is unlikely to reach the support levels of 2018,” said Fischer. “Our projections give Cuellar and González, both really good possibilities to celebrate their districts.”

The other newly drawn district that the Democrats believe they can compete, although as a uphill up, it is the new district 35. That district was previously rooted in Austin with a very democratic base and is currently in the hands of Democratic representative Greg Casar, president of the progressive Caucus of Congress. While marrying is likely to run in a new district that covers Austin, the new 35th district, which voted for Trump by 10%, could be competitive with the appropriate candidate and political environment.

“The Democrats are beginning at a significant disadvantage here, but it is not impossible to win here if there is a great year of blue wave in ’26, if there is a good candidate in that district, which we still do not know at this time, and if there is an improved democratic support among Latin voters,” said Fischer.

However, it is likely that the other two districts transformed into seats of the Republican party remain out of reach. The ninth and 32 districts, in the possession of Democratic representatives to Green and Julie Johnson, respectively, now have electorates who voted for Trump in 20% in 2024.

Although it has not been touched by the new map, the Democrats believe that a strong candidate could turn the seat of southern Texas held by Republican representative Monica de la Cruz. The party is waiting for the Music star of Texan Bobby Pulido, who recently retired to act to focus on politics, jump to the race.

Bill Clark through Getty Images

However, it is unlikely that efforts completely compensate for the change in the power of maps restructuring. In the most optimistic situation for Democrats, most Texas Pac sees Republicans winning between 1 and 3 seats in 2026, instead of the five seats Trump wants. If California successfully counteracts Texas with his own impulse of districts redistribution to eliminate the seats controlled by the Republican Party, all this episode can end in a washing or favor the Democrats.

The majority of Texas Pac expects to achieve this with a mass coordinated campaign to be democrats who did not vote in 2024 and convince those who did and took out the lever so that Trump voted for the Democrats this time.

The Super Pac will be helped by An advisory opinion Granted by the Federal Electoral Commission in 2024 that allows external groups directly coordinating with candidates and political parties on the exit of the vote and other field work. In 2024, Republicans capitalized this opinion By directly coordinating with the Super PAC of Elon Musk and the Turning Point USA right group so that voters in the key swing states. Most Texas Pac will do the same, directing the field program for the entire Texas Democratic Party and its candidates in 2026. They plan to double their dissemination effort in 2024.

The group will also participate in the recruitment of candidates to ensure that a Democrat is being executed in each legislative district of Congress and State in the State. They will provide these candidates for a large number of services, depending on the financing laws of state and federal campaigns, including media reserve, campaign planning and legal services.

If everything goes in the manner of the Democrats, Trump’s demands of five seats in Texas to mitigate losses in other places may not materialize.

“It is not an inevitable conclusion that Donald Trump will obtain the five seats that Abbott demanded, and the camera’s balance will probably be reduced to some seats,” said Fischer. “Our goal here is if Texas can have 2-3 seats and California’s redistrict, Democrats can still obtain camera control during partial people.”