The Trump administration has promised to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. How would that work?

With oil markets paralyzed by war between the United States and Iranthe Trump administration is weighing a military operation to escort ships through a vital maritime chokepoint, a massive undertaking that experts say could already be in the preparatory stages.

Since the US-Israel war against Iran began two weeks ago, more than a dozen attacks against Iran have been reported. tankers and other cargo ships in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Iranian officials have openly They threaten ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans.

For fear of attacks, oil tankers have practically stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which transports around 20% of the world’s oil, and is mostly crossed by Iranian and Chinese ships. And with nowhere to send their supply, some major Arab oil exporters have cut production. In the past two weeks, oil prices have risen about 40% amid concerns about a supply crisis.

The disruption has led President Trump to consider offering naval escorts to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in hopes that military protection could resolve the stalemate.

“When the time comes, the US Navy and its partners will escort tankers across the Strait if necessary,” the president told reporters on Monday. “I hope it is not necessary, but if necessary, we will escort them to the end.”

But administration officials have suggested they are not prepared to begin naval escorts yet. Energy Secretary Christopher Wright said this week that “it will happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now,” pointing to the end of the month as a possible timeline.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the escorts will begin “as soon as militarily possible.”

Military experts tell News themezone that any effort to guide tankers through the Strait (beyond possible Iranian mines, missiles, drones and explosives-laden “kamikaze” ships) will require preparations to reduce Iran’s ability to attack targets at sea. After that, it could involve American ships, aircraft and surveillance capabilities. But the operation would not be without risks.

What has to happen for the escorts to start?

News themezone military analyst Aaron MacLean described any potential tanker escort mission as a two-phase operation: First, the United States needs to “prepare the battlefield by reducing the stockpile Iran has of anything that can kill ships,” and then, in a second phase, it could begin escorting.

That first phase may already be underway, said MacLean, a Marine Corps veteran, former faculty member at the U.S. Naval Academy and former foreign policy adviser to Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas.

In the past two weeks, US Central Command says it has struck about 6,000 Iranian targets, including anti-ship missile sites, drone manufacturing facilities and minelayer ships.

It is important to reduce Iran’s military stockpiles (including its missiles, drones, mines and ships) before escorting the ships, MacLean said, because “what you want is for the amount of incoming weapons [fire] be manageable enough to be able to reliably intercept it when it happens.”

“They could do it today, but the sooner, the riskier it is,” MacLean explained. “If you put US Navy ships very close to the Iranian coast right now, the atmosphere will become really sporty very quickly and the risk is very high.”

Seth Jones, chairman of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told News themezone that the US military is likely preparing for escorts in the Strait of Hormuz by “degrading Iranian capabilities to lay mines and attack targets.”

“I suspect that the US Navy will not want to enter that Strait unless it is fairly certain that the threats have been degraded, largely by airstrikes,” he said.

When asked when escorts might begin, Wright suggested on CNBC earlier this week that the Trump administration is still in the preparatory phase.

“We are simply not prepared. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies its offensive capabilities,” the energy secretary said.

How would ship escort work?

The right time to begin escorting in the Strait of Hormuz is a decision that U.S. Central Command would have to make, MacLean said.

“You can’t wait indefinitely because you have to open that thing,” he said. “So at some point they will determine that they are comfortable with the risk and then execute convoy operations.”

He said an escort operation could involve the Navy establishing staging areas where commercial ships are guarded at either end of the disputed area, which could be limited to just the Strait of Hormuz or could extend further into the Persian Gulf.

“And then, like a mother duck with her ducklings, a U.S. Navy ship, or a partner navy ship, will escort several ships at once,” he said.

Those ships will likely have air support and surveillance, MacLean added. And Jones said the mission could include minesweeping capabilities, airstrikes against Iranian threats on the coast and a nearby quick reaction force that can counter attacks.

The first passing ships could be the target, MacLean said.

“We know the Iranians are going to shoot. We’re watching to see where they’re shooting from and then we attack them once they reveal themselves,” he said.

Bessent said in an interview earlier this week that the escort operation could involve not only the US Navy, but also an “international coalition.” According to MacLean, potential participants could include developed countries such as France, where President Emmanuel Macron has said the country’s navy is considering a “purely defensive” mission to escort ships.

What threats exactly could Iran pose to ships?

Just 34 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz has long been seen as a potential chokepoint that Iran could try to close during a war.

If the US Navy and its partners try to escort commercial ships past Iran, “100% will fire on the ships,” MacLean said.

Potential threats to maritime traffic currently in Iran’s arsenal include naval mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, fast attack boats operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and remotely controlled bomb boats, military and national security experts say.

Earlier this week, US officials told News themezone that Iran seemed to be signaling that it might place mines in the Strait. The size of Iran’s naval mine arsenal is not publicly known, but estimates over the years have ranged from 2,000 to 6,000.

Senior Trump administration officials have said the Strait does not appear to be mined at this time. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on Friday that there is currently no evidence that Iran is laying mines, and Bessent noted earlier this week that a small number of ships are still traveling through the Strait, suggesting it is not impassable due to mines.

“The only thing prohibiting transit through the Strait right now is Iran firing on shipping,” Hegseth said Friday. “It is open to transit, in case Iran does not do so.”

Jones told News themezone that Iran doesn’t have many large ships to lay mines, and the U.S. military says it has attacked about 30 Iranian miners in the past two weeks. But Iran has potentially hundreds of smaller vessels that can lay a few mines at a time, and destroying them all would be extremely difficult, according to Jones.

Some experts warn that Iran could still pose a serious risk to shipping. Michael Eisenstadt, director of the military and security studies program at the Near East Policy Institute in Washington, says he is skeptical that an operation to escort the tankers will work.

Eisenstadt noted that it is unclear how many Iranian missiles and drones have survived the past two weeks of US and Israeli attacks, but Iran’s remaining stockpiles could be hidden deep in tunnels, meaning Iran could still attack ships. He also said that a previous escort operation in the 1980s involved dozens of American ships, and if the one the Trump administration is considering is of a similar scale, it could tie up a significant portion of the Navy’s fleet.

“All you need is half a dozen drones to attack ships,” Eisenstadt told News themezone, “and then the tanker owners will say ‘forget it, thanks guys, nice try.'”

Has it happened before?

This would not be the first time the United States has transported ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

In 1987, near the end of the Iran-Iraq War, the U.S. Navy began escorting Kuwaiti oil tankers through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to protect them against Iranian mines and missiles.

“It was a big deal,” MacLean said, describing an operation involving dozens of American ships.

At one point in 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine, causing significant damage and prompting then-President Ronald Reagan to launch attacks against Iranian targets. Months later, the United States shot down an Iranian passenger plane that it mistook for a fighter jet, killing 290 people in what an American report described it as a “tragic and regrettable accident.”

That war ended with a ceasefire between Iraq and Iran.

If the United States decides to conduct another escort operation some 38 years later, MacLean said the mission could end similarly, either because of a ceasefire or because Iran surrenders.

“Basically, you keep going until there’s some kind of tipping point,” he said.