They will threaten reprisals after the strikes. An expert breakdown Tehran

Iran promised reprisals against the United States by the Trump administration surprising bombings of the three main nuclear sites of the Islamic Republic over the weekend. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Aragchi, now in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Iran “has to answer.”

If Tehran followed their rhetoric, potential movements could include attacking US military assets throughout the Middle East, closing the Hormuz Straitwhich is a strangulation point for 20% of the world’s oil, and carries out the so -called asymmetric war that includes terrorist and cybernetic attacks worldwide.

US military assets in the Middle East

He US operates eight permanent military bases in so many countries throughout the Middle East – QatarBahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Egypt and Iraq, with almost a dozen military facilities throughout the region, according to the Foreign Relations Council. The main one of these permanent bases is in Qatar in the Air Base to the Udeid with approximately 10,000 service personnel. Just to the west, Bahrein is home to a Naval Base of the USA. Called Naval Bahrein support activity with an estimated 9,000 troops. It is estimated that from 40,000 to 50,000 members of the US service are parked throughout the region.

“There are a variety of options in the target mallet of Iran,” News New Safety Expert in the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) of the Middle East told News themezone. “Unlike Iran’s orientation to Israel, which is much more difficult because of the distance, the Arsenal of Iran or the arsenal of short -range ballistic missiles make US military facilities in the Gulf more vulnerable. They are softer objectives in that sense.”

Iraq, who shares a porous border of almost 1,000 miles with Iran to the east, “tends to be seen as the next potential first line in which the conflict can be intensified,” he said, due to “several Shiite paramilitary groups linked to Iran” that can act independently of the Iranian government. Such groups have attacked in the past the US Al Asad Air Base in Iraq and the United States Embassy in Baghdad.

The US naval assets. UU., Which include aircraft carriers and their destroyers that accompany it, along with several amphibious support ships and others, are also potential objectives. The USS Carl Vinson’s attack attack group is currently displayed in the Arabic Sea, while President Trump redirected the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to the Middle East from the southern China Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carriers is also on its way. Several guided missile destroyers of the United States are patrolling the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.

These dozen ships provide possible objectives for various forms of Iranian attacks, which include “strongly armed rapid boats, short -range ballistic missile enhancing on a larger and larger scale.

Hormuz Strait and 20% of the world in the world

Leaving US military assets aside, Iran could cause economic pain and global energy by trying to drown the passage through the hormuz narrow, through which approximately 20% to 25% of world oil passes, along with a similar percentage of liquefied natural gas. The crucial river route connects the nations of the Persian Gulf rich in oil with the Gulf of Oman and then the world. At its closest point, it extends to only 21 miles, with Iran north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south.

Iran’s Navy could place thousands of mines to damage the ships trying to pass. Ozcelik de Rusi said this would symbolize a desperate “act of last resort”, which would mean that Iran is “out of control and spiral.”

“We can consider this as one of those suicide mission tactics, “he said.” If Iran were so far, the implications of retaliation would be very expensive and also counteract Iran’s own interests with respect to their oil export capabilities, as well as their relations with the Gulf … and its commercial oil relationship with China. ”

The Secretary of State of the United States, Marco Rubio, asked Beijing on Monday to help prevent the Strait will close. On Sunday, Iran’s state press television reported that the Parliament of Iran, the Majlis, approved a plan to close the hormuz narrow, but added that the final decision would be with the Supreme National Security Council.

Petroleum analysts predict that prices could jump from 50-60% if the hormuk narrow closed. A barrel of oil is currently quoted in the range of $ 70 per barrel. That could jump to $ 120. If the organization of oil export countries, or OPEC, releases more oil to compensate, would determine the duration of any possible price clash.

“Even if it is in the short term and the hormuk Strait was reopened later or Iran does not maintain that threat level for a long time of time,” Ozcelik said. “Iran would still suffer the consequences of that potentially, both in terms of its state, its reliability with the Gulf, as well as the oil infrastructure in the region, which has implications for Iran’s oil trade to bust.”

Terrorist and cyber attacks

Ozcelik said that the true long -term prolonged threat is found in “the asymmetric war space and terrorism potentially sponsored by the State.”

On Sunday, the US National Terrorism Advice System. UU. warned of a “high threat atmosphere” in the country. The bulletin did not quote any specific threat, but said that “it is likely that” low-level cyber attacks against US networks by pro-Iranian hackivists, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government can perform attacks against US networks. “

The warning occurred after a Pro-Iran hacktivist group, known as “Team 313”, claimed credit for a short duration of the Social Messaging Platform of the Truth of President Trump on Saturday. Around 8 pm et, the users who tried logging received an error message that said “the network failed” and “Try again.” The platform is in operation again.

Throughout the world, Iran has been involved in attempts at terrorist attacks. More recently, in London in May, the British authorities arrested several Iranians who claim that they were planning a terrorist plot addressed to the Israeli embassy. In 2023, also in London, an Iranian plot was also frustrated to kill two critical Iranian news presenters of the regime. Other terrorist frames have been stopped in Cyprus, Germany, Türkiye, the United States, Denmark, Belgium and France in the last decade.

Any retaliation action of Iran, whether direct attacks against the assets of the United States or the closure of the Strait, would invite a response from the United States, the Trump administration warned, which could put the survival of the Iranian government at risk.

Mr. Trump, after announcing the attacks on Saturday night, warned Iran against any retaliationsaying: “There will be peace, or there will be a tragedy to Iran much greater than we have witnessed in the last eight days.”

• Iraq
• Iran
• United States military
• Middle East