Trump is on the brink of war with Iran. Could a jailed American journalist offer a path to a deal?

WASHINGTON – Iran and the United States are prepared for war. The Trump administration has surrounded the Middle Eastern country with a staggering amount of military personnel and equipment, and many officials and experts now consider a US attack inevitable within weeks, likely to provoke a strong Iranian response and then a spiraling, horrific conflict. The best way to avoid that outcome is successful diplomacy, but its prospects are extremely slim. Trapped in Iran’s most famous prison is an ailing Iranian-American journalist whose plight helps explain why: Reza Valizadeh.

Imprisoned by Iranian authorities for his ties to the United States and his work as a reporter, Valizadeh was deemed “unjustly detained” by the State Department in May 2025. That unlocked “special consideration” and government resources to help free him, a Republican congressional aide told News themezone. The status reinforced Valizadeh’s relevance to Donald Trump’s presidency. staff “commitment to leave no American behind” and with Washington’s general affirmation of fighting Iranian repression.

“We have a lot of faith in the negotiators [with Iran] and the president. “This has been a priority issue for him and the administration: They don’t hesitate to bring people home,” the Republican adviser said, saying Trump had so far freed about 150 Americans detained abroad. When asked for comment about Valizadeh, the State Department sent News themezone a statement from a U.S. official demanding his release and that of “all others unjustly detained in Iran,” adding: “The Iranian regime has a long and shameful history of unjustly detaining American citizens.”

But today, the most likely scenarios for Valizadeh’s release seem extremely unlikely. This is due in part to decisions made by the Trump administration, which negotiated with Tehran and subjected it to military measures and economic pressure – including direct US attacks last summer – seeking limits on Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities and regional influence. Meanwhile, Iran’s own calculations also complicate the outlook.

Illustration: News themezone; Photo: Valizadeh family

Previously, agreements between US and Iranian officials to exchange prisoners like Valizadeh have helped Washington and Tehran reduce tensions.

Ryan Fayhee, Valizadeh’s lawyer in the United States, said he does not believe the two countries are now considering such an exchange. Instead, Fayhee sees Iran releasing Valizadeh and other American citizens “to reestablish its own standing in the region and allow for greater focus on the issue or issues that the Iranians want to engage the United States on.”

Among the other American detainees in Iran are two septuagenarians, he said, arguing that such detentions damage the country’s international image. (At least four Iranian-Americans are estimated to be in Iranian captivity.) And Fayhee noted that Tehran does not appear to be pressuring Washington to release any of its citizens detained in the United States.

“I don’t know exactly whatWhat is the strategy of the United States government? [but given] initial contacts, I feel very optimistic that there will be an opportunity to discuss these issues, because there was no communication before,” Fayhee told News themezone.

A goodwill gesture or public relations attempt by Iran is conceivable, but difficult to imagine amid constant threats and mixed messages from Trump. The president said Friday that he is considering a limited strike against Iran, a day after saying he still believes a deal is possible. Trump framed the attack as a negotiating tactic. However, even a seemingly modest attack would cause Iran to “walk away” from talks with Trump, a senior diplomat in the region told News themezone on Thursday.

Iranian leaders, who are trying to reassert power after brutally suppressing domestic protests last month, are reluctant to appear weak on the United States or make major concessions, but the Trump administration continues to demand sweeping restrictions on Iran that would be perceived as capitulation. Talks between envoys in Switzerland on Tuesday offered little evidence of a compromise. On Thursday, the US official told News themezone: “Progress has been made, but there are still many details to discuss. The Iranians said they would return in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to address some of the gaps in our positions.”

Some analysts believe that, given those gaps and signs that Trump is leaning toward an attack, Iran’s leadership now sees open fighting as its best strategic step, rather than taking steps to reduce tension by, for example, releasing American detainees.

“Tehran may calculate that the longer the war goes on and the higher the risks, the more likely the United States will look for a way to end it. Negotiations could then produce a different – and more desirable – outcome for Iran,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. wrote in the Financial Times on Thursday. “Many in the West will interpret this line of thinking as a catastrophic miscalculation… But it would be a mistake to dismiss it.”

Iran’s assessments of its options are based in part on its interpretation of the US measures. While Trump’s negotiating team, dominated by special envoy and real estate developer Steve Witkoff and now including the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, has held talks with its Iranian counterparts, few signs have emerged that those talks prioritize American detainees.

“Surprisingly, the administration has completely abandoned the American hostages case in Iran. They haven’t brought it up even once,” said Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. “I hope this is part and parcel of an agreement, not a continuation of it.”

When News themezone asked the regional official whether Iran could release imprisoned Americans to improve the tone around the talks, the official said it would be better for the dialogue to focus strictly on Iran’s nuclear program, along the lines of the latest deal between Iran, the United States and other world powers (which Trump weakened and then abandoned despite Iranian compliance).

In Iran’s view, the United States is already violating a previous agreement on the detainees, Váez said. In September 2023, the Biden administration agreed to allow Iran to tap into $6 billion in frozen oil revenues held outside the country as part of a prisoner swap deal, only for Washington to freeze the money again after the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel by the Iranian-backed Palestinian militia Hamas, which led to the massacre of hundreds of civilians.

Iranian officials raised that money in talks with the Trump administration last year, a former US official told News themezone, arguing that their concern was not even the amount, but evidence that the United States would keep its word. Trump made “an explicit decision not to release the funds,” the official said.

Iran does not appear to “recognize the political toxicity that exists for this administration” regarding the Biden-era deal, the former official continued, noting that the freeze was widely treated in Washington, including by many Democrats, as “the de facto punishment for October 7.” Any attempt to release the money would likely draw strong resistance from Congress and new tactics aimed at Iran.

With the two sides “talking over each other,” the latest talks between the United States and Iran “went badly,” the former official said. Asked about the administration’s statements that it would like to avoid war, the official recalled Trump’s negotiations with Tehran before the Israeli offensive against the country last year, which the United States joined: “I thought we were against the June war, but we weren’t.”

Held in an Evin prison cell along with 17 others, in a room where 200 inmates share four bathrooms, and without access to essential prescription throat medications or treatments for his dental and gastrointestinal problems, Valizadeh is among the most vulnerable if a conflict breaks out between the United States and Iran. News themezone obtained information about his case and its conditions from a report Fayhee prepared for United Nations experts.

The imprisoned reporter, now 50, was arrested in September 2024, after traveling to Iran to visit his elderly parents upon receiving assurances that he would not be targeted for his years of criticizing the Iranian government and working for Radio Farda, a Persian news outlet funded by the U.S. government. He was held in solitary confinement and interrogated, including about his radio work, for more than two months, before being sentenced after brief hearings in an Iranian court where the judge also acted as prosecutor. Valizadeh’s lawyer was not allowed to represent him, according to the report, and his appeal was rejected in January 2025.

The war has made Valizadeh’s 18 months in prison worse. During the US-Israeli bombing of Iran last summer, the Israeli army attacked the Evin prison in a apparent war crimekilling and wounding civilians. Valizadeh was close to an explosion. He and other screaming prisoners faced another explosion, then guards shot them and “were between life and death,” Valizadeh’s brother said. said the Committee to Protect Journalists last year.

The smoke severely worsened Valizadeh’s asthma and caused him to be briefly transferred to another prison known for its contaminated food and increased isolation. according to his brother.

The conditions of the detained Americans could be a factor as Trump weighs an attack and a possible tit-for-tat conflict with Iran, endangering tens of thousands of other Americans across the Middle East.

“That’s a significant variable in this, as the protection of American citizens is one of the government’s most sacred priorities,” the GOP aide said. “It is a consideration to follow, particularly with regard to Evin prison. That is something we have in mind not only for [Valizadeh’s] defenders but also the administration.”

But the Trump administration has also subjected hundreds of American citizens to violence and arrests and suggested that some should be stripped of citizenship. And in dealing with people linked to Iran, he has claimed to support their human rights, including dissent against the Iranian government, while banning most Iranian citizens from traveling to the United States and provoking mass attacks. impoverishment through sanctions.

The US official who emailed News themezone wrote: “We remind US citizens of the warning about travel.state.gov: ‘Do not travel to Iran for any reason.’ The Americans “They should leave.”

For Valizadeh, that is not an option.