UU. And the EU fight to reach a commercial agreement before the deadline of August 1

The Trump administration and the European Union are running to Clinch to a commercial agreement On the self -imposed deadline of August 1 of the White House, with economists warning that a strong increase in tariffs could increase costs for consumers and companies.

As the clock works, a series of pacts with other US business partners in recent days have increased the hope of avoiding a potentially harmful commercial war with Europe, and experts say that a Treat with Japan Announced on Tuesday could serve as a template for an agreement with the EU.

The United States has also recently announced contours of trade agreements. With ChinaIndonesia, Philippines and United Kingdomalthough there are still many details to end.

For consumers and companies on both sides of the Atlantic, a lot is in the result of commercial conversations. In the absence of an agreement, President Trump has threatened to reach imports from the 27 EU member countries with a 30%tax. When preparing possible countermeasures, the European Commission has said that it would impose tariffs to more than $ 100 billion in American products from August 7, News reported Wednesday.

The negotiations are ongoing and an American trade war could still be avoided. Citing EU diplomats, News also said that officials with the negotiation block could be open to a tariff rate of 15% of the USA., With possible workshops for key sectors, according to the cable service.

The White House did not immediately answer the questions about the state of the conversations with the EU, even if the Trump administration hopes to reach a commercial agreement before the deadline of August 1.

President Trump on Tuesday reached a commercial agreement with Tokyo that demands a 15% tariff on Japanese imports. In return, the agreement requires that Japan invest $ 550 billion in the US. And open its internal market for US exports, including cars and certain agricultural products.

The 15% tariff rate in Japanese goods is five higher percentage points than a baseline tariff than the Trump administration imposed on all foreign imports on April 2. But it is lower than 25% who threatened Japan earlier this month and the duties of 24% of its administration proposed In early April.

“The Japan agreement solidifies this pattern that we have seen so far, which is a market access relief, a commitment to buy American products and a universal base base level, but above the universal baseline,” said Alex Jacquez, head of policy and defense in land collaboration, a public policy research firm, to News Moneywatch.

“Japan’s agreement certainly provides a framework of what [Mr. Trump] Looking for: “Jacquez said.” It is about accepting a reference rate in or greater than 10%, and then making purchase commitments. “

Key catalysts for commercial agreements

A key element of Mr. Trump’s trade agreements has been a commitment of other nations to invest in the United States, the president has defended tariffs as a way of reliving the country’s national manufacturing base and making US exports more competitive, as well as generating additional federal income.

“We are learning that the promise of a greater investment in the US. “The promise to invest $ 550 billion was a large part of Japan-United States commercial agreement. It was a key catalyst to ensure an agreement.”

The EU, whose member states have a combined Gross Domestic Product of $ 20 billion, could probably commit to a large investment in the United States because it could cover several years and focus on key sectors, such as technology, energy or artificial intelligence, Daco added.

The additional EU commitments to buy American manufacturing goods and to reduce commercial barriers for US exports could also help close an agreement, he said. “Those do not cost much, and they are an easy negotiation chip to present.”

Higher prices risk

Although a 15% base tariff in the United States on EU imports would represent a reduction in previous threats to Mr. Trump, prices would still increase for companies and consumers in the United States, according to Daco.

“While it may seem like a great offer, it is still much higher than the rates that the United States was imposing at the end of 2024,” he said. “Therefore, there would still be a positive inflation shock due to higher rates. There would also be demand erosion from a reduced business investment, hiring and a reduced expense of consumers as a result of these higher rates.”

Currently, the average rate of rates in the US. In imports is around 15%, according to their analysis. If Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs enter into force, that rate would increase to more than 20%. However, if the EU accepts a tariff rate of 15%, the average rate of the USA. UU. In imports from all over the world to 19.5%.

“That remains a significant increase in the average rate,” said Daco. “It is much higher than 2.5% where we start the year.”

Because most US imports of the EU include industrial supplies such as components, raw materials and machinery, any additional cost would lead to work through the supply chain, according to Ryan Young, senior economist of the competitive Enterprise Institute, a group of non -partisan experts.

“It would affect manufacturing exports faster than US would affect US consumers, but it would increase prices,” said Young.

News contributed to this report.