Who will be Iran?

The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the early hours of the US-Israel war war against iran has raised a simple but enormously consequential question: who will replace him?

For nearly four decades, Khamenei stood at the top of Iran’s complex power structure, serving not only as the country’s top religious authority but also as its ultimate political decision-maker. His murder in the sprawling complex that housed his offices and residence in Tehran has created a void in a system designed above all to prevent exactly that kind of instability.

Formally, the decision now rests with Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the powerful clerical body tasked with selecting the country’s supreme leader. In practice, however, the outcome will almost certainly emerge from a much smaller circle: senior clerics, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the security establishment that has long underpinned the Islamic Republic’s power structure.

Several names have already emerged. But one stands out.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The main contender is Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s second son.

Unlike many figures in the Iranian hierarchy, Mojtaba Khameini has never held elected office. But for years he has operated quietly behind the scenes from his father’s office, cultivating influence throughout the security system, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He studied theology in Qom and fought as a young volunteer during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, credentials that still carry weight within the revolutionary elite. However, his authority largely comes from his proximity to power rather than his religious stature.

He is believed to have deep relationships with senior members of the Revolutionary Guard. That has enormous importance in Iran’s political system, where the Guards wield vast military, economic and political power.

Mehran Kamrava, a Georgetown University professor and Iran expert in Doha, said a succession to Mojtaba would likely reflect the system’s survival instinct.

“The deep state in the Islamic Republic wants continuity,” Kamrava said in an interview. “If Mojtaba is indeed chosen as his father’s successor, it would indicate more than anything that the Islamic Republic is trying to ensure continuity.”

During Ali Khamenei’s rule, the supreme leader managed to maintain authority over the Revolutionary Guard despite the enormous power within the state.

Kamrava believes Mojtaba is seen within Iran’s power structure as someone capable of preserving that balance.

“The assumption within Iran is that Mojtaba has an equally superior position relative to the Revolutionary Guard commanders,” Kamrava said.

If he is ultimately elected, it would be a sign that Iran’s ruling elite has chosen stability over experimentation at a time of extreme pressure.

It would also mark something unprecedented in the Islamic Republic: a leadership transition that effectively keeps power within the same family.

And while Mojtaba may be the favorite, he is not the only figure in discussion.

Ali Reza Arafi

Another notable name is Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a high-ranking cleric deeply embedded in Iran’s religious institutions. Arafi sits on both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts and has spent years overseeing Iran’s influential network of seminaries in Qom.

Following Khamenei’s assassination, Arafi was reportedly elevated to a temporary leadership council tasked with guiding the country during times of war and through the succession process.

Sadeq Larijani

Another potential candidate is Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, a former head of the judiciary and a member of one of Iran’s most powerful political families. Larijani has long been seen as a plausible successor due to his clerical credentials and deep ties to the country’s political establishment.

Hasan Khomeini

Some analysts have also pointed to Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Among clerics and reformist circles he commands respect, although his relatively moderate reputation could make him a difficult choice for Iran’s hardline establishment.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Hardline cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri has also been considered a possible contender due to his ideological alignment with the more conservative factions within Iran’s political system.

Unprecedented challenges ahead

Whoever the next supreme leader becomes, the circumstances surrounding this leadership transition are unprecedented.

Khamenei was assassinated during the initial phase of a war which has already expanded beyond the borders of Iran, with missile and drone attacks reverberating throughout the Gulf and throughout the Middle East.

Several senior Iranian officials were also reportedly killed in the early attacks, eliminating potential successors and further narrowing the field of candidates.

Meanwhile, President Trump said Iranian officials working on selecting the next supreme leader are “wasting their time.”

“Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to participate in the meeting, as happened with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela,” Trump said, referring to the interim president who took power after the United States captured Nicolás Maduro.

Leadership transitions within the Islamic Republic are typically carefully choreographed affairs. The last occurred in 1989, after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and involved intense negotiations between clerical and political elites before Khamenei finally emerged as the compromise option.

This time the process takes place in the middle of an active war.

Kamrava believes that another factor that will shape Iran’s future leadership is the generational change within the Revolutionary Guard.

Many of the commanders who defined Iran’s military posture for decades were veterans of the Iran-Iraq war. That experience, he said, often made them more pragmatic.

“The Revolutionary Guard commanders who were killed were those who had trained in the Iran-Iraq war,” Kamrava said. “They had seen the battle up close and had become restrained.”

Their replacements, however, represent a different generation.

“The younger generation… is much more radical, much less pragmatic,” Kamrava added.

Ultimately, that change may shape Iran’s direction more than the identity of the next supreme leader.

Despite the shock caused by Khamenei’s assassination, few analysts expect the Iranian political system to transform overnight. Kamrava was direct when asked if a leadership transition could bring significant changes.

“I don’t think we’re going to see radical changes in the way the Islamic Republic behaves,” he said.

The system can be adjusted tactically. In the past, Iranian leaders have loosened certain social restrictions after major crises to ease domestic pressure.

But strategically, the power structure within Iran remains intact. Clerics, Revolutionary Guard commanders and security institutions still dominate the state. And its priority, especially in times of war, is stability.

Whoever emerges as Iran’s next supreme leader will inherit a country under immense stress: a widening regional war, a battered economy and a population that has repeatedly they took to the streets in protest during the last decade.

The Islamic Republic has survived crises before. But this moment is different. For the first time since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s supreme leader has been killed during a war, and the system he helped set up is now being tested in real time.