Why is Trump threatening to punish Iraq if a former prime minister is re-elected?

Erbil, Iraq — President Trump has threatened to cut off all American support for Iraq if the country re-elects former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to a third term.

Al-Maliki, a member of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim majority, was forced to resign in 2014 after two consecutive terms amid pressure both inside and outside the country while dealing with the rise of the Sunni terrorist group Islamic State.

Here’s what you need to know about Al Maliki, why Trump refuses to work with him and what the confrontation could mean for Iraq:

What did President Trump say?

In a Jan. 27 Truth Social post, President Trump called al-Maliki a “very bad choice” for Iraq, arguing that his previous leadership, from 2006 to 2014, was defined by “poverty and total chaos.”

“Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq, and if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance for success, prosperity, or freedom,” Trump said.

In a statement posted Wednesday on social media, al-Maliki said: “We categorically reject the blatant US interference in Iraq’s internal affairs, which we consider a violation of its sovereignty and a contradiction of the democratic system established in Iraq after 2003.”

Why is Trump so against Nouri al-Maliki?

One analyst, and comments from America’s top diplomat, suggest there is a single word that explains why Trump is targeting al-Maliki, although the president actually omitted the word in his Social Truth post: Iran.

His vocal opposition to al-Maliki appears to be part of a renewed effort by Washington to curb the influence exerted over Shiite-majority Iraq by its neighbor Iran, the region’s largest Shiite power. It is a legacy of the aftermath of the 2003 US invasion, which toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein but then paved the way for Iran to assert its influence.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a Jan. 25 phone call with outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, emphasized that any “Iranian-controlled Iraqi government cannot successfully put Iraq’s own interests first, keep Iraq out of regional conflicts, or promote the mutually beneficial partnership between the United States and Iraq.”

The United States considers Iraq’s main Shiite political parties, including al-Maliki’s, to be aligned with Iran, if not dependent on it. During his tenure, Al-Maliki was considered to be particularly close to Iran and was also accused of being too sectariantargeting members of Iraq’s Sunni minority with its policies.

Ayad Al-Anber, a political science professor at Baghdad University, told News themezone on Thursday that the harsh rhetoric used by Trump took him by surprise, but the motivation for it was clear: The United States is determined to prevent Iraq from coming under the control of a government considered subject to Iranian influence.

However, he said it was still unclear how much pressure the Trump administration would be willing to exert, whether diplomatic, economic or military, to achieve that goal.

Could Nouri al-Maliki be re-elected in Iraq?

The Shiite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament, recently reached a majority agreement to nominate al-Maliki for a third term.

The former prime minister has remained a highly influential figure in Iraqi politics despite his ignominious departure from office in 2014, thanks in large part to his skills as a politician and crisis manager.

That said, there are no political polls in Iraq that help gauge his popularity nationally, not even among Shia voters.

What is at stake for Iraq?

Trump has left Baghdad with a serious dilemma. For the sake of domestic tranquility, any government must maintain an incredibly delicate balance, keeping the country’s Shiite majority and its large Sunni and Kurdish minorities happy.

According to the US government, Iraq received about $31 million in direct foreign assistance from Washington in 2025. That figure does not include the cost of the significant US military deployment in the country, aimed at keeping the persistent ISIS threat under control.

Of that U.S. funding, about $20 million went toward security-related costs, and nearly $9 million went to help cover government and civil society operating costs.

Another vital element of American support is less direct, but also gives Washington significant leverage: All of the Iraqi government’s oil revenues are processed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and if the Trump administration deems Baghdad to be doing Iran’s bidding, there are concerns in Iraq that the funds could be reserved.